Discussion: Race Tightens In Two Of Four Quinnipiac Swing State Polls

Yep, right on timeā€¦

The Great Polling Flood of October

Comes every 4 years. like leap years, but more annoying,

4 Likes

One of Nate Silverā€™s minions was on MSNBC last night saying they get 50+ poll results in per day. Ultimatelty, this is all about making money or notoriety or both. This hyperactive polling just muddies the waters. As Antonio Salieri would say. ā€œThere are too many notesā€.

3 Likes

More troubling news indeed. Just like one poll that had Joe Heck pulling ahead of Cortez Masto. :confounded:

Time for some calming words from Uncle Sam (my italics)

ā€œIn other news, the Presidential Meta-Margin has ticked toward Trump by a fraction of a percentage point. This has no bearing on the win probability ā€“ heā€™s too far behind. But it does indicate that the race is, once again, moving toward its average. Truly this is a dull year, statistically speaking.ā€

None of this is surprising. Itā€™s DULL. The polls will tick up and down. There is really no such thing at this point as tightening and loosening, according to Sam. Just different data points arriving at different times. Some of the senate races ARE tight. Some of the swing states ARE tight. The presidential race is NOT CLOSE AT ALL. Ignore Nate Silverā€™s click bait. Honestly, I really miss Nateā€™s boring geeky days.

Whatā€™s troubling about Hillary pulling even in GA, which has been reliably Republican for decades, and closing the gap in IA, where Trump was ahead?

Itā€™s the click bait headline. These polls are good for Hillary even though the headline makes you think that itā€™s Trump whoā€™s closing the gap.

9 Likes

Hello, TPM!

These are good polls for Hillary. Sheā€™s the one closing the gap in GA and IA and maintaining her lead in NC and VA!

3 Likes

Yeah youā€™re right, but Florida and Nevada have been moved from lean Dem to Toss up.

Repost: They have literally spent the entire day on CNN (and Mark Halperin is at this moment on MSNBC) harping on the ā€œemailā€ nothing of a story. Emailghazeeeeā€™ā€™ā€™ā€™ā€™ā€˜Emailghazeeeeā€™ā€™ā€™ā€™ā€™ā€˜Emailghazeeeeā€™ā€™ā€™ā€™ā€™ā€˜Emailghazeeeeā€™ā€™ā€™ā€™ā€™ā€˜Emailghazeeeeā€™ā€™ā€™ā€™ā€™ā€˜Emailghazeeeeā€™ā€™ā€™ā€™ā€™ā€˜Emailghazeeeeā€™ā€™ā€™ā€™ā€™ā€™!!!
It seems to be the only way they have left to try and tighten the race. OMFGā€¦the private email server! OMFGā€¦Why havenā€™t we heard about it until now? OMFGā€¦There were questions??? OMFGā€¦

Gawwdā€™ how tiring, how trite___Thereā€™s no ā€œthereā€¦thereā€! and the MSM bastards know it.
Itā€™s infuriating.

And on CNN now: ā€œTrump is surging (ewww) in NCā€¦FLAā€¦blah, blah, blah.ā€ Wolfie Blitzer is orgasmic: ā€œHeā€™s within striking distance and can still win, although the path is narrow.ā€

How fucking telling that Trumpā€™s last, best hope is a batch of stolen emails targeting only Hillary Clinton and the damned Putin-for-Trump apparatchiks at the Kremilin.

1 Like

CNN is doing exactly the same thingā€¦in spades!

TPM uses all polls in their aggregators ā€“ even Republican sponsored ones. Take a look at FL, for instance. It looks like Dixie Strategies, whatever that is, pushes Trump slightly ahead even though most of the other polls show Hillary leading.

Itā€™s the part where they seem to be acting like Georgia is just another of the perennial swing states, so la de da, no big deal that itā€™s tied there, thatā€™s killing me.

Clinton tied with Trump in Georgia = Catastrophic Loss Coming for Trump, regardless of who actually wins Georgia. Clinton within three of Trump in CBS Texas poll = Catastrophic Loss Coming for Trump, regardless of the fact that Trump will probably win it.

And, for that matter, Clinton within one point in the state that just elected Joni fucking Earnst to the United States Senate = Catastrophic Loss Coming for Trump, even though I think heā€™ll probably carry it by a point to two.

Jesus, itā€™s like turning on the Weather Channel and seeing them talk about an approaching cow storm as if it was the storm that was the story, rather than the fact that goddamn cows were falling from the sky!

6 Likes

By definition, when Georgia and North Carolina are classified as swing states, there is no trouble.

1 Like

One of my favorite moments in a splendid movie:
As (*Emperor Joseph II and one of his minions) would say. ā€œThere are too many notesā€.

I loved ā€œMozartā€™sā€ reply: "And just which notes would his Majesty remove?"
~audible gasps all around!~
:smile:

Actually that was Emperor Joseph II. But point taken: in a statistically dull polling season these constant updates are, as Sam Wang at the Princeton Education Consortium said, this yearā€™s polls are basically ā€œprurient entertainment for progressives.ā€ http://election.princeton.edu/2016/10/10/some-secrets-are-not-all-that-dirty/

If only I had read the damn thing before posting: what I meant to say is ā€œin a statistically dull polling season these constant updates are, as Sam Wang at the Princeton Education Consortium said, basically ā€˜prurient entertainment for progressives.ā€™ā€

Like you, Iā€™m concerned. On second thought ā€¦

Clickbait headline - ā€œTighteningā€ is actually Clinton closing the gap in states where she was behind. Well played, actuallyā€¦

2 Likes

LOL! Georgia is now a swing state? And this is somehow troubling news?

LOL.

2 Likes