Discussion: Projection: Sanders Beats Clinton In Alaska Caucus

With 38% of the precincts in Bernie has 181 votes to Hillary’s 49. Those Alaska caucuses must have been very quiet affairs. It looks like an average of about 15 people showed up in each precinct.

The bad news for Bernie is that there is only one more state caucus on the Democratic calendar: Wyoming. He’s done very well in the caucuses. He’ll have won ten out of twelve of them after today (and probably take Wyoming as well). He just doesn’t do very well in primaries. He’s lost in 16 of the 20 states that have had primaries so far, including ten of the eleven largest states that have voted.

He’s currently way behind in the polls in both New York and Pennsylvania so I would imagine that he’ll have a very good time over the next two weeks and then get destroyed at the end of April.

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Small, but not that small – notice the disclaimer:

Note: The votes counts above represent the 539 state convention delegates won by each presidential candidate:

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/alaska-democratic-presidential-caucus-2016

Same as with caucuses, the ā€œvotesā€ shown are state-level delegates won, not raw number of votes, which would be much higher. This seems to get at least one commenter with each caucus, and it’s an easy mistake to make, since these numbers are often reported in the same exact format as the raw votes in states that have primaries rather than caucuses.

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How many Clinton victories were states that no Democrat will win this fall?

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How many states has Bernie won in that he will win in this fall?

Zero…because Bernie isn’t going to be on any ballots this fall.

Get over it. And soon.

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Well, what about Alaska, Martin?

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And how many Clinton victories were in the swing states that a Democrat has to win to win the election? She’s won most of the swing states (including the critical ones of OH and FL), and some by really big margins. Note that they held primaries instead of caucuses (caucuses favor small turnouts by very dedicated partisans). Bernie isn’t going to win the Southern states either (he’ll lose there by much larger margins than Clinton).

Your presumption that Clinton is only winning states that the Republican candidate will win is wrong, and in fact ignores the point that Clinton has a much better chance of winning those states and in the swing states than Bernie does.

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The Bernie supporters are hoping that him winning a few small states in a row will build momentum and cut into the polling. They had better hope that is what happens…right now Clinton is polling ahead in all of the large states to come. The delegate counts today won’t matter if she blows him out in NY as predicted…she’ll gain a lot more in one shot than he will today, and that’s just one state (MD, NJ, PA, CA all against Bernie now). If the momentum doesn’t swing, and there is no reason to think it will, then he’ll be in real trouble in a couple weeks. I just wonder if we’ll hear more strident calls of cheating by the Bernie supporters as he loses more primaries.

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Get over it?

Understand this now: I will not vote for an ethical mess like Hillary. Never.

I won’t vote for a war hawk. I won’t vote for someone beholden to special interests for her wealth. I won’t vote for someone whose finger serves as a political anemometer. I’m not alone in this.

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Then you support Trump for president. Thank you muchly.

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You’re right, my bad. It looks like some of the caucuses have actual votes counted (like Utah and Idaho) whereas others (like Iowa or Alaska) don’t. I’m not sure how they could make the caucus system more confusing.

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Congratulations to Bernie on his success in Alaska, and I presume, the other caucuses today as well. He’s worked hard, is on the right side of most issues - and deserves his victories.

That being said, I think Sanders supporters are making a mistake sitting out if it’s Hillary vs. either Trump or Cruz.

You don’t have to love everything Hillary stands for, but you can’t possibly want Trump or Cruz, can you?

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Who ya gonna vote for if Bernie isn’t on the ballot this November Martin? Bernie looks to have a really good night tonight. No denying that. But the general ā€˜consensus’ right now is he’s gonna have a hard time securing the super-delegates needed to win the nomination. Since they’re not likely to change how that works, how is it possible Bernie can win?

So again, you just gonna sit this election out if Bernie isn’t on the ballot, or go rogue…Maybe Kasich is your man? But even he won’t be on the ballot come November. Somehow, from past posts you’ve had here, I can’t see you being much of a Trump or Cruz supporter.

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How many Clinton victories were states that no Democrat will win this fall?

I think most candidates who’ve won the primaries have done so by taking several states they weren’t likely to win in the general election. It would be kind of stupid for any candidate to only focus on state primaries where their party is likely to win in the fall.

Anyway, Clinton took Florida, Virginia and Ohio by large margins and those are key swing states. I don’t think the Democrats will have to worry about Washington, Minnesota or Vermont next November. Oh, and when was the last time a Democrat won in Oklahoma or Kansa BTW?

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Martin, understand THIS now. You have no good reason to hate her like you do.

Hate, Martin. It’s an ugly emotion, and boy do you have it.

I’ve read too many comments by you. Yours were the ones on the long Hillary/Bernie thread that made me sick to my stomach. I kept asking myself, ā€œWhat’s wrong with this person that he has zeroed in on Hillary Clinton like that?ā€

Only you know the answer to that question, Martin.

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I’ll do something different than I have in the past when I voted a straight ticket. I’ll skip the presidential election.

I simply can not support Clinton with a vote.

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Alaska is turning Blue for Bernie!!!

.
Wow, CNN went to commercial in the middle of Bernie Sanders’s victory speech.

That means every member of my very large family donates doubles the $27 donation. :laughing:

We’re in it 'til JULY!

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Clinton’s problem is that she takes too much money from the special interests. No one believes she is going to reform the banks. The whole idea is a laughable joke.

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The ā€œvote countā€ reflects state delegates won not number of voters.http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alaska

Good grief. Obama made strides after Bush.

No one believes it can continue, now that some practices are against the law?

Get a life.

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