And the most terrifying sentence award goes to:
“Diversity may help win Democratic primaries in 2018, but it’s unclear if
it’ll help Democrats pick up seats among a broader general election
audience.”
Gillum’s win shows just how unreliable the polling was going in to the primary. He was consistently behind Graham for a very long stretch, but then saw some movement his direction in the closing weeks. Pretty much everyone who looked at the numbers on Monday had Graham with a very strong chance of winning. Gillum got unexpectedly high turnout in various demographics (notably non-white and young voters), which upset the polling models. The main takeaway here is that any polling for the general election is going to have to adjust its turnout model. I moonlight as decision theorist, but I have no idea what kind of adjustments will be required in this case. In the name of Bayesian statistics, I hope that Gillum can win this thing.
And in Closed Primary states, the gap between primary and general election only widens.
Stupid AP. Let’s compare apples to submarines:
The GOP total came to almost 35 percent of what Trump won in Florida in 2016. The Democrats’ total was about 33 percent of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 turnout.
So let’s compare apples to apples:
Florida Gubernatorial Primary 2014 Vote Totals: R - 949,144, D - 837,796.
So R performance was 170% of 2014 numbers, D performance was 180% of 2014 numbers. Plus the guy who was polling third all primary long on the Democratic side won with a superior ground game, and will most likely save Bill Nelson’s bacon in the General Election.
What AP also fails to mention is that Florida is a closed primary state and that almost 27% of registered voters are registered as No Party Affiliation.
Exactly
But also even on TPM the BS continues.
Beyond the raw vote totals, the GOP count also was a larger share of its last presidential election turnout.
That measure is a useful way to assess which party is more excited about a midterm election, and it’s particularly useful in Florida because the state limits primaries only to voters registered by party.
How useful is it really? Excluding 1/3 of voters (independents ) ?
Me as I’m reading:
DeSantis… DeSantis… which GOP asshole are we talking about here? There are so many nowadays that it’s hard to keep track of… DeSantis…
And lest there be any question about his allegiance to Trump’s divisive immigration policies, DeSantis encourages his toddler to “build the wall” with blocks in one campaign ad.
Oh. It’s that asshole. How could I have forgeten him?
There is a lot that can happen in the next two months. Trump and his merry band of miscreants are trying to race against time. But daily there is one more, sometimes a handful of news that does not serve them well. I am betting that each day one of the few non-maniacal supporters gets stripped off. I doubt they can gain new supporters.
Mueller is scaring the crap out of them and the next Manafort round may have serious teeth. Meanwhile, McCain just had to arrange his death and final affairs just to make them look bad. Cohen is dinking about out there and gosh who knows what NDAs may pop up or if crates of material show up from AMI. I half expect to see Melania file for divorce in the next few weeks. She may do so just so Barron can walk free in the sunshine.
The fact they are going after Ohr and Nunes has done another hail mary pass to England just tells me they are really in bad straits. If I were the §resident, I would have extended executive time to a 24/7 basis and not pop my head out for nut’in.
Diversity grows - except in the Oval Trailer…
Inside Stephen Miller’s hostile takeover of immigration policy
The 33-year-old policy adviser has made unprecedented power grabs as he seeks to slash immigration to America.
Melania would heartily concur…
I don’t get the word “establishment”. How do you get billionaire funding and not qualify as the “establishment” candidate? When I read that a Trump candidate beat the establishment candidate, I wonder if the writer has the first clue who runs the Republican Party. I hate to pickon TPM, but this weird use of “establishment” is as bad here as anywhere else.
I couldn’t finish the article. The guy gives me the creeps, his secrecy is there to hide himself and not be part of the discussion. Which is a coward’s game. Then add on the prefacing everything with the §residents thinks, or likes or says adds to the intentional cowardice. He knows what he is doing and what history will say. He wants to get his way and keep his hands clean. I worked for a boss like that for way too many years. The problem he had with me is I would barrel into the CEO’s office when he did those shenanigans and win. In this case, Trump is not that CEO unfortunately. Lets not let him get away with that.
I agree, and think Miller will be recognized in posterity as the Adolf Eichmann of the 21st century.
“Your final solution, Hair Furor”…