Discussion: Poll: Trump Still Leads Iowa, Fiorina Surges and Christie Plummets

No, I am saying that there is an increasing frequency of reports, be they from other GOP candidates or the media, calling out the Donald for what a pig he truly is and sooner rather than later than some [e.g. Josh Marshall] think, it is going to start registering even with his die-hard supporters.

This is great news… for John McCain!

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Pfft. What next, racist views hurting a candidate for MS governor?

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Well, it should…

Sorry, but I stop reading when “Democratic leaning” prefaces PPP results…

It is the only polling outfit to ever get a qualifier on TPM.

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Yup. And billionaires shouldn’t be able to buy elections. Jeb shouldn’t be considered a viable candidate because he hasn’t actually taken a shit on the floor the way some people expected.

Our political system is pretty fucked up right now.

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I don’t think you are reading the Republican base very well.

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“his suggestion that its lone female moderator’s menstrual cycle contributed to her tough questioning of him.”

As a diehard Trump supporter (as in, “oh please, oh please, oh please…”) who wishes him a long and successful trajectory in the Republican primaries, I really wish TPM in particular, but “liberal” media generally, would stop pushing this as what Trump supposedly said. He didn’t. Maybe my wishful thinking is coloring my view, but I just don’t read him as saying that. He said she had “blood coming out of her eyes, or wherever.” Could that be a reference to menstruation? Maybe, but it just isn’t what he said. And it isn’t even the most likely interpretation. He was saying she was angry and her questions were inappropriate. Whether or not that’s true, he said “blood coming out of her eyes or wherever” as he moved on with his thought (or as close as he comes to thoughts). He’s said a lot of nasty things about women - and men - in the past, but this isn’t one of them, it’s ginned-up Republican outrage designed to outrage women so that his support goes down, while simultaneously allowing the other Republican candidates to cast themselves as incredibly respectful protectors of women. Which they’re not. This is a sideshow, people! Stop pushing it, you’re hurting Trump!

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So this poll is the same as the others. Roger Ailes has to be pulling his hair out.

Maybe so, but I would definitely not read it through a PPP poll :wink:

Get over it. The menstrual cycle comment has entered media reality the same way Howard Dean’s scream entered media reality. It didn’t truly happen, but the media think it did so that is what the media reports.

I tend to think it’s going to have the opposite effect. His sexist comments coming to light will be seen as the party elite, GOP establishment pundits and analysts once again trying to kill the base’s candidate of choice. They don’t find these kinds of comments all that offensive when they’re aimed at liberals. In their world, anyone who does find it offensive is being politically correct and that’s the real problem.

Where did he drop 20%?

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It seems in line with the NBC internet poll numbers for the race nationally. Trump maintains, no traction for Bush, bumps for Fiorina, Carson and to a smaller degree Cruz. Walker slips, Kasich fails to impress, and everybody else is where they were before, which is weak to pathetic.

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Ding! Ding! Ding!

I guess the system is broken so that makes it alright, including the right-wingers’ claims of widespread election fraud that requires voting ID cards and other devices to curb. Where does one stop with the cynicism?

An old cowboy I used to know often sang a little ditty as he was working. I don’t remember all the words. but the first few lines went something like:

I once knew a very fine billy goat
Whose horns were of very fine brass
And one stuck out of the side of his head
and the other stuck out of his … hokey pokey, diddley dokey…

etc.

The human mind loves to find patterns based on previous experience and often comes to erroneous conclusions; but we can cunningly be led there too.

I’m still “excessively diverted.”

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Remember how long it took the GOTP base to get over the grifter from Wasilla? These people are living in an alternate reality fueled by hatred of all kinds - and that includes hatred of the facts in front of their sneering faces.

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Except, according to Monmouth University Polling, Trump’s favorable/unfavorable just before the debates was 52/35 for a net +17. This poll shows 46/40 for a net +6. If the polls are comparable, then the debate hurt him a lot. The frontline numbers in a field of 17 candidates are simply not important. His favorables tell you what his ceiling of support is, and that ceiling just lowered a lot.

Favorables for other candidates from this poll:

Carson +59(!)
Rubio +51
Walker +46
Huckabee +44
Fiorina +41
Cruz +35 (!!!)
Bush +12
Kasich +10
Trump +6
Christie -10
Paul -14

I don’t know about you guys, but I am not putting my money on the guy polling 9 in a field of 11 for favorability. Politics is, after all, first and foremost a popularity contest. Trump is at his ceiling. I think it is going to be Walker, but I think with Fox News’ backing Rubio has a shot. I think Bush’s campaign is dead in the water, and Paul should just drop out now. I could very easily see Walker/Fiorina as the ticket. Horrifying, but it is more likely than seeing Trump be anywhere on the ballot.

Well, if it had been done by surveymonkey…

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Deep down I know all that, and don’t get me wrong. I think that if by some miracle Trump is the GOP nominee, the result would be a 50-state Dem landslide with House and Senate coattails longer than the Potomac, and I would rejoice for the country. However, the rational being in me keeps saying that the other side cannot be as clueless as they seem about what truly a “liability” Trump is.