Discussion for article #244369
When people like Kasich and Christie drop, another guy like Rubio or even Jeb will pass Trump. They each have 11 percent, so right away Rubio would be way ahead of Trump just from those two.
Trump has a VERY loyal 29%. But that is not likely to win the nomination. Nate Silver has been pretty much on board with that thinking too.
Pity, he stands no chance in the general, so I indeed hope he wins the nomination. But it’s not likely to happen.
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Rafael is on track to win Iowa because evangelists if I’m not mistaken so Trumpet will continue to be enraged
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I’m watching New Hampshire very closely. An establishment candidate needs to overtake Trump in this state to have a chance at thwarting Trump’s march to the nomination, in my opinion. Also, whoever that candidate is will become “the” establishment candidate. Chris Christie is looking like a dark horse here. (This poll is mostly in line with the RCP average, with Rubio expanding his position a little bit.) Very interesting stuff.
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Trump has climbed as high as 40% though in some polls, and that is not a ceiling because some of the other 60% would/could support trump if their preferred candidate dropped out. Trump just needs to hold that 40% peak, and snatch 1/6 other voters.
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“Jeb Bush has taken to handing out toy turtles to kids at campaign stops…”
- Shouldn’t he be handing out toast?
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Good news! Also, Clinton campaign correctly Akining GOP by withholding their Trump takedown until later, since he is the loser they would most like to beat in November.
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Actually, they’re Mitch McConnell dolls.
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When Cruz is forced to drop out for being a Cuban-Canadian Citizen will his supporters flock to Trump? They won’t go to Bush that much is for sure.
When Kasich, little boy that can’t balance a check book Rubio, Bush the 3rd, Santorum, donut man Christie, and Canadian-Cuban Cruz drop out, who will be left for Trump to attack? Trump needs someone or his polls will fall off a click…his followers will go back to watching the Three Stooges.
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First off, Kasich and Christie are not going to drop out before New Hampshire.
Second, Kasich and Christie only have somewhat respectable numbers in New Hampshire because they have camped out there and focused on that state. Nationally their poll numbers combine to only to 6.4% according to the Real Clear Politics average. Rubio only has 11% nationally. You add Kasich and Christie’s national numbers to Rubio’s and you only get 17.4% while Trump has 35.3%.
The idea that there is an establishment track to the GOP nomination simply isn’t backed up by the numbers. If you want to start lumping numbers together then you also have to lump the non-establishment candidate numbers together. Trump and Cruz’s numbers alone get you above 50%.
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I think if they can get it to a two-man race, they’ll figure out an ad campaign to take Trump down. With an open field, that’s money that helps some other candidate.
That’s it: I’m taking out shares in Orville Redenbacher and Laphroaig, This is just too good.
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Trump is an anti-establishment candidate. Attack ads from the establishment don’t work. They only toughen the resolve of his supporters. There have been focus groups that have proved this. Trump attacks have been the most effective so far this nominating season. There is no reason why they would stop being so if this became a 2 man race.
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“When”? Not if 3 different guys take second place in 3 different states. GOP is toast.
I’m so excited about the next four weeks until Iowa caucuses, I’m probably going to wear out my F5-key.
It’s like a win-win, just need to bring the popcorn.
- Trumps wins and and Republican Committee goes hysterical, narcissistic Twitter-messages galore from Donald, other candicates falling apart
- Trump loses and implodes on Twitter - more fun is guaranteed to follow.
There is going to be no end of entertainment the next months.
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Much like national polls, the ones you cite would apply to a nationwide popular vote. That’s not how it works though. It’s like polls showing Hillary losing to some GOP candidates. Not likely. She is getting blown out in states that are already red. In swing states, she’ll take at least a few, which is plenty to win.
A lot of the big support for Trump and Cruz is in goober states, where they blow out the other guys. In more rational states, the other guys are doing fine. Plus the GOP has a lot of “unpledged” delegates they use. If they want, they can push Trump out if he is too big.
Trump is not going to be the nominee. The media, including this site, prop him up because it’s good for ratings.
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When what?
Yes, I’ve been saying that. But Trump gets blown out big time. The others might make it a somewhat close race, and since you never know what might happen (Hillary health issue, etc), I’d prefer Trump as the GOP nominee because even Bernie Sanders would beat him, whereas Rubio of another mainstream Republican probably beats Bernie.
If you look at state polls things don’t get any better for Rubio. In fact they actually look worse. Name one state where a poll says Rubio can win. It looks like Rubio would get swept in the first four states. After that it is likely Rubio would be polling even worse in states than he is right now.
I seriously don’t understand this optimism for Rubio and I’ve heard it from people that I normally trust. Where exactly is Rubio supposed to win even one state?
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Where did I reference Rubio in my post you replied to? Even in the first post I just said a candidate “like Rubio”. What I am saying is that when it comes time for the convention, there will be ONE mainstream guy (Rubio, Bush or whoever) that will consolidate all the mainstream votes and beat Trump. Plus as I said, the selection process involves delegates, including many unpledged delegates.
The Republican Party is not going to allow Trump to get the nomination. Not a chance. I wish he could be…but he won’t.
Rubio is the best “establishment” candidate that you could be referring to. If you want to claim that you were talking about Bush or Kasich instead then go right ahead, but then your case would be even worse.
I ask again in an even more general way if that makes you happier. Name one state where an establishment candidate is likely to win. If you can’t do that then it is inconceivable that this would even make it to a brokered convention. There are still a lot of winner-take-all states. Even if it made it to a brokered convention, the anti-establishment candidates Trump and Cruz would have more than enough delegates to cross the 50% + 1 threshold. No amount of hand waving gets you around the simple fact that you can’t win the nomination without winning states.
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