Discussion for article #244958
What does it say of a polling sampling that picks Sanders 51-43 over Clinton but wants Clinton to be the one to run in the General by a margin of 60- 38 over Sanders? Is this an “in my heart I want Sanders but my mind says to vote Hillary” thing?
these polls are all over the board. TPM is also running a story saying hRC is up by 9 in Iowa
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Exactly! A 20 point difference between the two. So crazy. These polls for the Dems seem useless.
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The perils of “I want to send a message” voting, maybe?
@pmb28: Actually, they had two such stories today – Emerson and Monmouth/KBUR, both showing her up by 9. (Though of course Chuck Todd’s only mentioning this one; better for the “Hillary in trouble” narrative…)
Anybody know the relative reliability of these three? (I realize the most reliable by far for Iowa is the Des Moines Register’s.) Apparently, CNN was way off on Iowa in 2008 – just heard it had Hillary clobbering Obama shortly before he beat her – but what’s the history on all these guys? And I haven’t checked the internals on any of them; independents making the difference? Pushing undecideds? Pollster’s tone of voice?
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That’s what makes them so predictive! In Reality World. Sanders is:
(1) sucking Iowa slough water
(2) gaining on HRC by the stroke (There Will Be Strokes!)
(3) dental appliance to orthodontric implant with HRC
(4) slowing pulling away, tho short of surging (Noi Surging!)
(5) so far ahead it’s comical
and no matter which it is, there’s a poll that stands for it!
two stories both put together by Conor. All the head-shaking at TPMHQ must be causing some repetitive stress problems.
let them caucus. idiotic way to run a state primary. polling caucus goers is on a par with herding cats
So much of HRC’s fan club whistling past the graveyard in this page. The only reliable pollster is Nate Silver and he has already called the race and the general election for Bernie Sanders. Remember, Nate was 100% in the 2012 election. See, fivethirtyeight.com
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Well, I went and looked, and found nothing of the kind. Do you have a more precise link, perhaps?