Discussion for article #228169
I am particularly skeptical about CNN polls. I just don’t think people are going to be forthcoming to questions from orcs. They should hire humans to conduct their polls. Or elves. Even dwarves would probably get a better response rate.
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This race will be a walk for Landrieu with her strong support in the New Orleans area along with a great turnout in all areas of Louisiana which almost always augurs well for the Democrat. Cassidy’s failure to even put together a viable campaign will embarrass all of the pollsters who even suggested that it was a contest. Landrieu will walk in a November victory without the problem of a runoff!
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La Palina is gettin’ maverick and rogue-y agin’. Campainin’ fer Maness.
Considering they have the same skin, the baby gator probably thought La Palina was it’s Mama
Face off questions in this type of election really mean nothing because voters who want to see a different democrat to Landrieu (and there are many) will say that they will vote Cassidy in the hope that encourages votes for a left wing candidate. Come the election they will all choose the Democrat over the Republican.
" The CNN poll found that just between Landrieu and Cassidy 50 percent of likely voters support Cassidy while just 47 percent said they would vote for Landrieu in a runoff."
Or, in other words, Cassidy has a small lead over Landrieu.
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Her chances of coming out of this with her seat drops dramatically if she doesn’t somehow get 51% of the vote in November to prevent a runoff. The entire rest of the field are candidates who are to the right of Cassidy, and he’ll get their votes in December. She’s not likely to get 51% of the vote.
Unless polling is far off she’s likely to lose her seat (but she’s fought against tough odds before so we’ll have to see). Vitter will become the senior Senator but will resign his position when he wins the gubernatorial election next year, leaving Cassidy the senior Senator and another GOP moron to run for Vitter’s vacated seat. Louisiana will be left with two knucklehead freshmen senators with no positions of authority whatsoever except as two yes men for whatever the Tea Party wants.
Liberals love to bash Landrieu for her more moderate voting record, but her loss here would be a bigger loss for the state than just a simple election’s outcome. She’s been a voice for moderation in a state that’s become at a tremendous pace more red. To put this in perspective Vitter was the first ever Republican Senator in Louisiana.
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Why did Landrieu’s poll numbers recently fall off a cliff?
I agree, I don’t think it is even a three point race. She will struggle to get 47% in a head to head race with Cassidy.
They haven’t. This is essentially what the polls have been saying for a while now. She wins the general and loses in the run off. People seem more sanguine about LA because it’s a close race, but somehow Landrieu is going to pull out family influence and outside group support to pull ahead in the general.
It does become a bit trickier to predict what happens after Nov, but for me its still a hold your breath and wait and see thing.
He doesn’t need a campaign, he has Mary Landrieu who votes 97% of the time with Obama and Obama has about a 35% approval rating in Louisiana. He has Mary Landrieu who was the deciding vote for Obamacare and she says should would do it again.
Unless Cassidy has a Todd Akin or Richard Mourdock moment she’s toast.
She barely won the seat in 1996 when Bill won the State by 12% and she barely won again during the worse political Climate for the GOP since Watergate. She will lose by at least 53-47 in a two person contest.