Discussion for article #229041
If these polls turn out to be as inaccurate as they’ve been for the last two election cycles, will the media (including TPM) finally admit that most of them are useless trash?
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Interesting race.
Frequently, you have Democrats losing races because they try to avoid ideology, and time and time again, it proves the adage that you cannot beat something with nothing.
In Kansas, we now have two nothings running against each other, though it this case, one of them is an independent.
Kansans will end up sticking with the idiot just because he’s “our boy”…and it’s sad to see.
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MOE is 4.7? That’s sorta a useless poll then.
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None of the polls are all that good, but they all point to a much tighter race than Roberts anticipated. Orman might pull this out. Neither has a really good GOTV organization so this could be tight.
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Roberts is getting a ton of money sent his way now, however. Orman is kind of on his own. He certainly won’t be getting the GOTV funding and organization that we are seeing the national Dems rolling out in other states.
Kansas Republicans are in a real dichotomy with this race. Most Kansans are Republicans, and by and large, Roberts has been their reliable go-to guy in the Senate. He’s never done anything to credibly deserve public backlash. His free-ride, however, ended with the Kansas primary, where he was outed by not actually living in Kansas, and in listing his primary residence in Alexandria, VA. Add to that that he’s missed 2/3rds of his ag committee meetinging since 2001, and his rightward swing to the Tea Party, and a growing number of Kansas Republicans are ready to go elsewhere. His primary challenger was too much of a kook even for Kansas Republicans, so he never really stood a chance winning the nomination, but Kansans are done giving the free-ride to Roberts. Republican’s choice now, however, is abandoning the party althogether, and going independent over a native son. Dems will certainly go this route, tho they might regret it if he decides to cacaus with Repubs, but a growing numberr of Republicans, too, are leaning towards a completely fresh start. If Orman proves to be a bust for Kansas Republicans, he’ll be limited in his DC authority, and he’ll be a one-term Senator. There are a lot of Republicans who can live for 6 years with that understanding. Roberts out. Orman in, but for a very limited time. A growing number of Kansans are also starting to realize that if Roberts wins, he’ll resign shortly thereafter, giving up his seat to Kobach, and he’s highly, highly unpopular with the vast majority of Kansans. That fear alone may sway the election in Orman’s favor. This really is unprecedented territory for Kansas. There is no history of a similar situation to base any predictions on the outcome. 50/50 actually sounds about right. My guess is that there will be just enough Repubs to just say no, and the vast majority of Dems who will just say hell no, thus giving the seat to Orman. That’s my hope, anyway.
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Grow grow grow!!
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Just having a tied Senate race in Kansas is amazing. That has not really happened since 1974
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Really Kansas?
Orman has money. He can probably keep up on TV. His real weakness is GOTV.
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