Discussion for article #228434
I’d totally defer to Iowa correspondents on this one, but my gut feeling on this is that she loses and Braley squeaks by. In a decision likely to be driven by GOTV, the louder his crew screams about her extremism, the more likely Braley’s victory.
I doubt Ernst will be able to ride in under the radar like Deb Fischer in NE although they hold the same backwards positions. Ernst will crash land on the runway under the hot lights of the final month, like Plain.
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I have a feeling this is going to be yet another election where the “likely voter” screen makes the polling less accurate.
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Tpm is also using polling from Gravis Marketing whose google results are articles about how much they suck.