Discussion for article #229190
Lesson to Democrats - Do not take Hispanics for granted.
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I thought at the time when Obama announced the delay of any immigration action until after the election that this very race could be the one most likely to be negatively impacted. I hope I was wrong, and that Udall pulls this out, but this is not very encouraging.
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Monmouth university poll just came out that has Gardner only up by 1. Suffolk has been a bad pollster. Look at their 2012 polls.
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You hush now; you’re spoiling TPM’s breathless reporting!
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Gardner may win, but Suffolk is an incompetent and ideological polling firm. Remember their leader in 2012 declaring that he was no longer going to poll VA and FL because Romney had them sewn up? Clearly, this is a very close race.
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These pollsters really cannot support their “likely voter” screens with any data that passes the smell test.
I will happily bet that if you put all the competitive races together and compare the polls vs the actual results, the pollsters will do no better than you would do by guessing at random.
By the way, the taller candidate usually wins where both are of the same gender. Check the data and you will find that to be true. So, just out of curiosity, how tall are these 2 guys?
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I live in a Denver suburb and can GUARANTEE you this is a pick em race,. There is NO way Gardner is up by more than 2 if that. Suffolk has been a really bad pollster so ignore this poll. It is useless.
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Where is the statistics in the poll data. It would be nice to go to the actual poll. TPM will you put the actual site for the poll up?
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How many times do I have to say this? Suffolk is the same pollster that pulled out of VA,FLA and NC a month before the 2012 election,because they/he concluded Romney had already won them. Suffolk sux.
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This is absolutely correct. They create an idea of a “likely voter” scenario that is pretty much based on their belief of who is going to vote. The reality is that no one really knows who is going to vote.
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Here is the easiest way to see this poll over sampled republicans… In a purple state you will not get this number of people watching Fox over all the others combined , Not happening especially among independents. And MSNBS at 6 percent? I don’t watch it much but I certainly never watch Fox and so partisan democrats WILL WATCH MSNBC… 6 percent … Get real Suffolk.
When it comes to politics, what TV News Network or commentary source do you trust the most (randomize)
ABC, NBC, CBS, Fox NEWS, CNN, MSNBC, C-SPAN, COMEDY Central?
(N=500) n %
ABC -------------------------------------------------------------------21 4.20SUPRC / USA TODAY Colorado General Election Voters
All Very Likely Voters 7 of 7 October 18-21, 2014
CBS-------------------------------------------------------------------30 6.00
CNN-------------------------------------------------------------------64 12.80
C-SPAN--------------------------------------------------------------- 9 1.80
COMEDY Central -------------------------------------------------22 4.40
Fox NEWS -------------------------------------------------------- 184 36.80
MSNBC --------------------------------------------------------------30 6.00
NBC-------------------------------------------------------------------46 9.20
Undecided-----------------------------------------------------------70 1 4.00
Refused --------------------------------------------------------------24 4.80
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I found the original poll and I have to say that it is a mess. Now I know why Suffolk is so bad. Suffolk is again going to be the worse pollster in 2012 and 2014. They should not even poll in 2016.
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Suffolk is garbage…Gardner may very well win but it is very close
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i wouldnt put a whole lot of stock in ANY Suffolk poll - beyond their comedy of pulling out of polling VA and FL in 2012 (because Romney had both those states in his bag !) … their last Iowa poll had this remarkable breakdown of likely voters
167D 167R 166I for a total of 500 - yup exactly equal
http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/10_15_2014_marginals.pdf
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Often, not even the voters themselves until election day.
By the way, I don’t put too much store in which pollster got it right or wrong the last time. Unless they can show a statistically significant margin over random guessing,that should be ascribed to blind luck.
I’m still trying to find out how tall Udall and Gardner are; surely someone from Colorado has seen them together…
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What a joke this poll is. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2014/CO_Suffolk_102214.pdf
They over sample Arapahoe and Jefferson Counties which are essentially even among the 3 different affiliations (35.4%) and they under sample Denver and Boulder counties which have 2 and 3 times more democrats than republicans at (25.8%).
Like I said. What a joke.
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In the poll Udall is doing very well with latinos. This poll only has Udall getting 29 percent of white voters which is insane.
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Nice legalized recreational marijuana laws you’ve got there. Be a shame if DOJ stopped looking the other way.
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Suffolk U? The same one that has the uber-conservative free market "think’ tank Beacon Hill Institute that receives all kinds of funding from folks like the Kochs, Coors and Waltons? Yeah, I’m filing this one under “consistently wrong.”
That being said, Udall is an idiot and a disaster. He should’ve walked away with this.
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