Discussion for article #224058
That sounds about right. The little bounce she got was strictly name recognition because her name was being painted all over the local and national news due to her primary victory.
Once she starts rambling on about castrating hogs even more regularly, look for his numbers to get even better.
I don’t see Iowa seriously in play.
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And heeeerrrreeeee comes the daily Polls. In June. (sigh)
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Braley wins.
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Joni was quoted as saying, “Goddamit GAIL!!! No prostate milking for you this week.”
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All you have to do is hold firm and STAND for something. People are really, REALLY getting tired of the do-nothing kooks the GOP is festooned with…but if you don’t STAND for anything, you’ll lose.
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Her numbers dropped the day after her nomination. I hope that trend holds.
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And people might elect a Democrat because “Obama’s presidency is over” (courtesy of loon Chuck Todd)? The media is purposely or not misreading the mood of the public that is not in the irrational deep South??
Read about how Thad Cochran’s bringing home the bacon to Mississippi in the form of investment, highways and sewer systems is being vilified by his constituents, who have been taught that the federal monies that come in go exclusively to lazy welfare louts. Go figure. Now that is some serious ignorance, isn’t it?
The Midwest is not the deep South, however, so here’s hoping Braley has a real chance.
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At least Joni still has her internal polls.
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In a state filled with lunatic Christianist nutbags in a mid-term election, your confidence seems a bit overstated to me.
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Hillary Clinton can save this seat for Democrats. She is a lot more beloved here than she was in 08
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There were two prior polls showing Ernst up–one by 1% (Rasmussen) and the other by 6% (Loras College). The Loras poll also had Branstad up by 14 in the governor’s race which was more than other recent polls.Quinnipiac also did a poll on the governor’s race with the Senate one and I assume it will be coming out shortly (I know as I happened to be one of the folks who got a polling call). It will be interesting to see where their numbers in the governor’s race compare to the Loras one. Their sample was more than twice as large.
Another poll that makes no sense. The respondents are all over the map!
I don’t like relying on polls months before an election but RCP has Braley up in three polls and Ernst up in two. Also, if people were tuning in and listening to what the troglodyte husband was saying about women, that could easily work against her, or so I’m hoping.
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And your cynicism does nothing to help matters.
FWIW, Iowa went for Obama twice, and this Senate race is another statewide race. They might have their pockets that put nutbars like Steve King in office, but they are still a relatively intelligent state.
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Look at the trending there. Republicans, and Ernst in particular, has been underwater since they started polling, with no upward trend besides that momentary bounce following the primary. And a week later, she is right back where she started, so not even an ability to build upon that bounce.
Its not blind confidence behind my statement. I am merely looking at the numbers.
The Loras College poll can be safely thrown out. Its a small, no name, college based poll with a very questionable republican lean. Both it and the the Ras poll were conducted during the final week of the primary, when Ernst was all over the TV and Braley was saving his money for the general campaign.
Polls are, to some degree, merely snap shots of a specific point in time. Trends are more aimed at aggregating those snap shots over a longer period of time, and are therefore usually of more importance. One of the games is to overemphasis a particularly favorable period of time (ie, when your candidate is all over the TV and your opponent isn’t) with a slew of polls, in an attempt to bias the over all trend. That is essentially what happened in Iowa.
She cray cray.
I’m concerned over the 49:30 gap among women that Ernst would better than Braley on “issues important to women.” Is there a particular something that happened that non-Iowans don’t know about?
The billions that ALEC and the Kochs are pouring into conservative campaigns, has reached the point of diminishing marginal utility. Now that’s practical economics!