Discussion for article #223237
Is there actually hope that the electorate will wise up and vote in their own interests?
I’m curious as to how many of these likely voter screens are almost exclusively based on 2010’s turnout. If Democratic turnout is somewhere in the neighborhood as what it’s been in past midterms, shouldn’t there be about 3-5% better turnout. 2010 was historically bad and yet it seems it’s become the new standard. Anyone have any thoughts on this?
As a woman I thought Terry Land’s ad was stupid. Pointless, even. I never did figure out why that garnered such praise from the right wing. But then I never get their dog whistles, either.
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And Peters hasn’t released his most recent ad, at least on the west side of the State. It should be devastating. He goes after Land’s bio, which is full of holes, fuzzy facts, and glosses over her more opportunistic self-serving moments. Can’t wait till that runs in heavy rotation. But we still have all the way till August 5th till the primaries happen in MI.
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I hope that some of Peters’ strength can rub off on Schauer(?) the Dem candidate for Gov.
Hi Plucky,
I commented on a similar question yesterday, and I’m basically going to repeat what I wrote.
No doubt, the Republican base voters are fired up and eager to exact revenge on the Democrats, which might “nationalize” the races.
However, I feel there might be mitigating factors that could play to the Democrats’ advantage and hopefully drive up turnout:
Several unpopular GOP governors are up for re-election;
More than 20 GOP-led states refused to expand Medicaid, which might lead to a voter backlash;
Millions of people are now insured thanks to the ACA, which could blunt some of the “ObamacareGhazi!!”-style attacks coming from the Right;
Many independents and seniors swung right in 2010 because Republicans accused Obamacare, and Democrats in general, of “raiding” Medicare to pay for Obamacare. Now, with the benefit of having seen the recent Paul Ryan-penned budgets, they may now realize that the Repubs were in fact not actually championing Medicare, but attacking Obamacare;
The Moral Monday movement in North Carolina has the potential to go viral;
Continued voter suppression attempts could backfire and fuel the determination of minorities, students, etc. to vote;
Continued attempts by state legislatures to restrict abortion rights could lead to a female backlash;
Rep. Burr’s insensitive letter decrying some Veterans’ groups for not being sufficiently supportive of a Secretary Shinseki ouster in the wake of troubling news at some VA clinics – and the rapid condemnation of Burr by said Veterans’ groups – could peal off some normally-reliable veterans’ and senior citizens votes from the Republican column;
Some states will have a medical marijuana referendum on the ballot; which could boost youth turnout;
and, the wild cards: the potential impact of the involvement of Bill & Hillary Clinton and the group Organizing for America in this year’s campaigns.
I don’t know how all this will wash out, but it could lead to unpredictable results. Since many Republicans won in 2010 by very small victory margins in a low-turnout election, if the net impact of all the factors I’ve mentioned amount to a swing of as much as several percentage points in favor of the Dems, it could be a game-changer – especially since many of the above factors might boost turnout precisely where they have been low in off-year elections. We know the right wing would crawl through a mile of cut glass and barbed wire to vote; it’s the Democratic voters that have recently had trouble coming to the polls in midterms.
But then, I do live in hope.
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