Discussion for article #241960
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Fucking horse-race journalism.
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not totally relevant to this article, but just consider this possibility for a moment (and it is a possibility, if not a probability):
President Ben Carson
Republican House led by a âFreedom Caucusâ Speaker
Republican Senate, led by GOPers who are either sympathetic to the Tea Party or terrified by it (given a President Carson and FC Speaker)
I honestly believe that that would be the end of the world. No hyperbole.
We have given up serious reporting on what a candidate brings to a race in favour of polling every three or four hours and giving the gasbags on tv the latest opportunity to offer gems from their lazy journalism. And they rinse and repeat that for hours on end until another poll begins the cycle all over again.
Like this?
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Fix the Sanders number in your story! Itâs not 11%. I donât support Bernie, but that is sloppy.
Also, polling stories help us understand what the public (in NH in this case) is responding to. Those too high-minded to consider them relevant might also consider not clicking on them just to complain. Your whining improves the dialog not at all.
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Yep. Bernie is at 33%
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Weâre still months away from anyone casting a meaningful vote and Iâm already bored to tears with articles about NH and Iowa. Neither state matters.
I have to say, at the Alabama Dem Conference, She was AWESOME. If youâre going to lead the Democratic party, then be seen as being proud to be one â warts and all.
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I was wondering how she could have âreclaimedâ NH if she was ahead 35-20 before the debate.
Of course they matter. You may not like it, but whoever takes either (or both) states gets a big push into the next primaries. Momentum really does happen in early primaries.
Typo alert. I clicked the link. PPP has Sanders at 33% not 11%.
Thatâs two pretty significant polls in a row that are giving NH to Hillary over Sanders now.
And lots of unhappy Sanders supporting saying polls donât matter.
I guess she IS pulling ahead.
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I always sensed that Sandersâ relatively high poll numbers in NH over the summer were ephemeral because, overall, most Democratsâ views are closer to Hillaryâs than to his. Itâs only information savvy voters, who lean farther left than a typical Dem voter and frequent the comments sections of TPM and/or NYT, who made it seem as though Sanders had a shot at it. Of course, the mostly positive narrative that Sandersâ campaign got vs. the mostly negative narrative of Hillaryâs over the summer greatly contributed to skewing the poll numbers. The first Dem debate, during which Hillary showed herself to be presidential material through her poise and razor sharp answers vs. Sandersâ wild gesticulation and shouted answers, is all it took to âunskewâ the poll numbers and return them to where they had been all along.
The poll numbers that we are seeing now are the ârealâ numbers because voters have had a chance to compare the candidates side by side and to determine or confirm who would be the most electable. Thatâs right, it was always going to be about âelectabilityâ and the closer we get to the actual casting of the votes, the poorer Sandersâ showing will get because Hilary is by far the most electable of the lot and, after the debate, the voters no longer have illusion about thatâŚ
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Youâll soon see this cycleâs version of Tea Party Poll Unskewers⌠The #FeeltheBern Poll Unskewers.
Pretty soon theyâll come out with their own version of the polls, all while complaining about the lamestream media and their gotcha articles that ignore Bernie and how they can see Alaska from⌠wait⌠Iâm mixing up the crazies!
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The poll numbers give us a snap shot of what is happening today. Which is, Hillary is ahead of Sanders. The numbers are still subject to change as events unfold in the weeks/months to come. For example, if Hillary has a strong showing on Thursday, her lead will grow even more next week. We are now, in both parties, hitting the point where people are starting to give serious consideration to their votes. So you are correct that electability starts to become a bigger factor.
The biggest outcome of the debate, I THINK, is that some people on the fence, or on the margins of the Biden camp, moved into Hillaryâs camp. I suspect when we see Biden bow out, (whether he does it this week, or enters the campaign and does it in a few months) that we will see even more people move into her camp.
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But I am SO happy to have someone use âreignâ as versus 'rein"! (looking for easy wins today, LOL)
I watched a bit of this last night and I have to agreeâŚHillary was doing a superb job of ripping the Republican clown showâŚand I donât mean just the clowns running for President the whole kit and caboodle of them especially the states controlled by Republicans. If we really want to make progress then there needs to be a clean sweep next November not only in the congress but in the states as wellâŚWe need large voter turnout voting straight Democratic for the entire country!
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Unless she is indicted, nothing would change the ultimate outcome, which is that Hillary gets the nomination. Sanders is a great guy and he means every word he says about income inequality, but that is his only issue, which makes him a one-issue candidate who, along with his self-assigned label of âdemocratic socialistâ, is unelectable and every serious Dem voter knows that. It is why the favored plan B in case Hillary falters is to bring in Joe Biden, since to nominate Sanders is to ensure a 50-state landslide win by the Republican nominee, regardless of who s/he may turn out to be. Hillaryâs improving poll number may, in fact, also have something to do with the sense that emailservergate has been discredited by McCarthyâs âgaffeâ, which has allowed Dems to breathe easier about the prospect of Hillary as their standard bearer.
Regarding the likelihood that Hillary will falter, Iâd like to go out on a limb and say that it wonât happen. In fact, I would even guarantee that after Thursdayâs fishing expedition by the Benghazi select committee, where Hillaryâs poise will put the GOP panel members to shame, the whole charade will blow in their faces and a lid will be put on Benghazi! for the foreseeable future. You heard it here first.
âŚlots of unhappy Sanders supporting saying polls donât matter.
And a lot of Hillary supporters who have suddenly decided that the NH primary and NH polls are important after all. 
Anyway, it does look like there is some movement in Hilaryâs direction in New Hampshire, though the evidence of her actually being ahead there is not very strong yet â there have been three NH polls (that I know of) since the debate, Boston Globe / Suffolk, which showed Hillary ahead by 2 (within the margin of error), Boston Herald / Franklin Pierce, which showed Bernie ahead by 8, and this one today (PPP) which showed Hillary ahead by 8. The Boston Herald and PPP polls cover almost the same period of time. One difference is that the Herald poll was âlikely voters,â whereas the PPP poll was âregistered voters,â so perhaps that accounts for at least some of the difference.
Still, even if itâs not certain that sheâs actually ahead in NH at this point, it does look like Hillary is making good progress there, because for a while there pretty much all the polls were showing Bernie ahead in New Hampshire, some by double digits, and that certainly doesnât seem to be the case now.
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