Discussion: Poll: Blocking Unnamed SCOTUS Nominee Hurts Portman, Toomey

New to the Democratic Party, huh?

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I have seen reports that one of the Koch brothers PAC’s is employing people to make comments on blogs and websites. Some of the comments I have seen make that very believable.

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Oh, certainly. It’s not like I pulled that from nowhere.

Don’t go thinking that everyone from Chuck Todd down to Beej isn’t being coordinated. It’s just some of them are smart enough to get paid while others are just so angry and stupid they want to throw tantrums at anyone smarter, more successful, or calmer than them. So, basically, angry at everyone.

But hey, at least they’re kept armed. Surely that’s a win-win for everyone.

GOP Senators who don’t want to do their jobs should not be re-elected.

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Two edged sword here.

Consider something that is fairly comparable though the situation now has to be worked out using today’s rules so nothing is completely so: Reagan replacing Powell in the face of a Democratic Senate. The result was Kennedy, who voted with the liberals on at least a few issues (gays, the death penalty, abortion up to a point, religion in schools etc.). Kennedy also voted with the conservatives on other key issues.

Bork was really an in your face pick & he might have been able to get a more conservative pick confirmed if he played his cards better. But, fact was, a Scalia type in 87-88 was unlikely to be confirmed. So, realistically, Obama might have to choose a more conservative choice now than many here would want if he wanted to seriously put forth a person Republicans could be expected to confirm. Or, at least, do a trade – e.g., offer to nominate some favorite appeals judge (one example is the still always gone to Miguel Estrada, the great conservative martyr of judicial wars) or two as a trade.

Many Democrats might be willing to live with waiting on those terms.

In other words, business as usual for the Republicans. Using the same tactics and expecting a different result is the GOP way. Sounds like the American public might be on to them. They can’t win with their base and it looks more and more likely that is all they have.

Just look at all the $$ that Rove’s American Crossroads spent in the 2012/2014 cycles. Not much bang for the buck.

Oh, look here:
Karl Rove Just Tossed Rob Portman A Casual $1.12 Million
OCTOBER 27, 2015
Senator Rob Portman is facing a tough reelection challenge, so Uncle Karl’s lending him a hand in the form of a $1.12-million ad buy.

Karl Rove’s One Nation just “bought $1.12 million worth of television, radio and digital ads advocating for jobs legislation sponsored” by Portman, according to Politico. The ads will run over the next several weeks in an attempt to give Portman a much-needed lift in the polls.

Not a bad haul for Portman: The $1.12-million assist significantly surpasses the $800K Rove dished out to both Roy Blunt and Joe Heck last week.

Apparently Karl Rove thinks Portman is just that much more vulnerable — Karl Rove can’t afford to lose a senator who so diligently prioritizes an out-of-state big money special-interest agenda over the needs of Ohio working families.

Background from Conservative Transparency:

One Nation is a nonprofit 501©4 addition to Karl Rove’s “constellation of Crossroads organizations.” The group “aims to advance well-constructed solutions to our country’s most [
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McConnell’s Misstep.

He always, always-- tries to stake out the most extreme position immediately-- and grudgingly walks-it-back to a lesser position/stance-- more to his strategic liking/advantage.

Only-- in this case, it was too big of a topic to employ this tactic.
Too important to the entire country-- not just partisans.
He’s possibly cut off his caucus at the knees.

jw1

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If the Bush Dynasty’s finished shouldn’t their flunkies direct their loafers to their cushy exiles?

the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling firm

Oh for fucks sake TPM. You guys are really phoning in bullshit. From fivethirtyeight.com (aka Nate Silver):

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Poor McConnell—his ignorance of the constitution if getting fellow senators in trouble.

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Absolutely not!

It’s been that way for years, as you know.
I assume they’ve taught the phrase to their word processors so if they type in “Public Policy Polling,” it gets auto-corrected to “Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling.”

And no one does “nakedly political” better than Sen. Mitch McConnell 
 except, perhaps Ted Cruz.

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Thank you for this. I also caught that statement and uttered a WTF? PPP has been one of the most accurate polling outfits in years, but still the media (and TPM here) hang a leftist slant.

TV ads really don’t have that big of an impact anyway
never have. They usually produce a slight 3-5 day bump that drops off after initially showing the ad. Repeatedly airing the same ad has a negligible effect, though there are some studies that show showing new ads after the bump recedes causes another spike
but its questionable whether or not there is a diminishing returns with subsequent ads.

Any TV bump is far outweighed, for example, by merely having the candidate campaign in the market and have it shown on local TV news. Word of mouth, associations (Hey! I know where they filmed that!) make fora much longer lasting and bigger impact

The problem is, and this is one of the reason that CU hasn’t been the electoral bonanza that the GOP though it would
is that the GOP campaigns are filled with staffers and consultants who are all making a buck off of selling TV ads. So that’s what they continue to do.

Case in point
Bush’s campaign burned through over $130 million
and produced no noticeable impact either for his numbers of the the candidates he went negative on.

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Could PPP PLEASE keep these fucking numbers to themselves? If a Republican is going to get voted out of office for being a dickhead, I’d rather they found that out at the ballot box rather than from a frenemey wanting to demonstrate what they already knew
 that they’re a dickhead.

No, I think that is precisely the tactic he is going to take. He tossed out a strong sounding (but still used the word “should” in it) statement to start things, and is now just letting the winds blow it around where they may. If, as I suspect, he isn’t gaining any traction with the scorched earth approach, he will begin to grudgingly ratchet things down a notch.

I am still guessing we have a nominee approved before the conventions take place.

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Maybe we can get some emails to Marshall and he can stop by to tell various people to fuck off?

Anyway, if you’re wondering why we have no editing, it is presumably to make sure crap like that gets stuck into all the right places.

They’re in the 'poll position"
 seeing which way the polls direct them.