Discussion for article #240165
People who have escaped the murderous Assad regime are, quite understandably, reluctant to stay under the semi-fascist Orban regime. Hungary is currently a DINO, a democracy in name only.
As a German, I say: welcome in my country. It’s not all roses, and we certainly have our share of xenophobic violent idiots, but by and large you’ll find it a place where people can live and build their lives and careers according to their abilities and free from other people interfering with your lives. And, Allah knows, the German economy can use a few thousand extra workers. Esp. those who have enough energy and strength to make it all the way from Syria and other hellholes to the German border. Herzlich willkommen! Ahlan-wa-sahlan!
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The 21st century is on the march. The degradation of formerly habitable regions by climate change will swell the parade immensely. We ain’t seen nothing yet, especially in El Norte. Neither the Yuuuge Wall of Drump nor nativist/racist fulmination will prevent it. However, practical plans for integrating climate asylum seekers into the American/Canadian societys and economys and preparing the necessary infrastructure now can ameliorate the impact. I imagine that providing enough fresh water for direct human use and agriculture will be the crucial challenge.
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Wait til next year. 800.000 this year, 1.600.000 next year. And if you are a renter, watch out. The 800.000 are going to be looking for a place to stay. Rents are going up up up. Viellen dank, Gnadiger Frau Merkel! Sie sind den besten!
And a slight correction: Few of these “refugees” in search of free beer are refugees. Most are from Turkey. They escaped Syria months, years ago. In addition, they could have stayed in Bulgaria, Greece, Hungary, or Austria. So, have fun with this first wave. Because there are PLENTY more to come.
No, the crucial challenge is limiting births in Africa. The Congo has 4x as many persons as 50 years ago.
And what exactly is your plan for that?
If that is addressed to me re the comment about birth control, it’s a complicated problem. We do know that as women get educated, they don’t want as many kids. So, my thought would be to 1) talk to women in Mali, Congo and other overpopulated countries 2) provide for them birth control methods which are not requiring men’s permissions - long term implants, stuff like that. Also easy access to abortion, including R-232 (the pill post-coitus). Nothing in this area is simple, but Africa is in a demographic race with extinction now. More people, more poverty, more desperation. Cutting births will help.
At the same time, christian religions are proselytizing Africa at a ridiculous rate…so while you’re telling Malian women about birth control, some catholic or evangelical kook is telling them that birth control is the devil’s tool.
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You’re lucky then HP.
Here? Ours are soulless, fear-mongering, xenophobic violent idiots.
jw1
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I am not quite sure how familiar you are with the refugee situation in the Middle East, in Europe, the European Union, and Germany. Judging from your predictions, I presume not very much.
There are many reasons why refugees have no intention of staying in Turkey, Greece, Bulgaria, let alone neo-fascist Hungary. And in the long run, yes, there needs to be a European solution. For the time being, however: welcome to all refugees from that region. I’d rather have them come to Germany than being beaten up by the Hungarian police.
I am aware that the American right wing is mortally afraid of immigration. Art. 16 of the German constitution grants political refugees an unconditional right to asylum. After the darkest hours of our history, which sent numerous Germans into the world, seeking asylum, it is the least we could do after democracy was restored. BTW, Chancellor Merkel stated today that there is no numerical limit for political asylum. The neo-Nazis will go apeshit over this statement. Let them.
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Good luck with that. We will see how much immigration is tolerated. 800.000 this year, 1.600.000 next year, 3.200.000 the year after that, what is the limit? And remember my prediction about rents. German people pay rents. How about the illegals? I doubt they will be paying. That should be some fun.
Quite a switch from a government where one’s right to anything was dependent upon blood purity.
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Population control is a necessary long-term action. Natural processes of disease and starvation; and human slaughter for basic resources, such as food and water, will reduce population numbers around the world. However, we have perhaps 30 years before climate ravage impels very many millions of people to move where the means of life are still available. Plan now or pay more in anguish later.
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That prediction is based on absolutely nothing. It’s not even bad social science, it is simple fear-mongering. And you still don’t get it. What “illegals”? The refugees are legal. And most of those who have no legitimate reason for asylum will have to go back home. Immigration and political asylum are two completely different things.
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70 years is a long time, and people can learn. Trying to atone for the Nazi atrocities was one of the structural ideas in the framing of the constitution. Most of the framers in 1949 were to some degree persecuted by the Nazis, and quite a few of them were refugees themselves - which is highly pertinent to the current situation…
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The influx of Syrian refugees is directly linked with the rise of IS/Daesh, a monster of American making. Colin Powell warned Bush before the Iraq war: “If you break it you own it.”
Unfortunately, the US is not owning up to this mess. Germany will accept almost a million refugees this year, the US “generously” announced to take in 10,000.
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There are “many obstacles” to taking in refugees in this political climate. The nativists here don’t want that to happen and would sooner send back 11 million Mexicans rather than allow their citizenship go forward, the background checks because of fears of terrorists slipping through take years and those are only two among other obstacles. I don’t see the U.S. and this administration being ungenerous.
Don’t be fooled; these people aren’t immigrating, they are emigrating as a religious duty. This is a hijrah, spreading the faith through mass emigration is exactly how Islam started, and is considered the highest form of religious devotion and duty This is why you don’t see any of the leaders of these six Gulf countries – Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain lifting a finger to help their own religious brothern.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabian King booked the ENTIRE Four Season Hotel in Washington DC to meet Obama. The Saudi Royal Family drive around in Ferraris, Lamborghinis, and Rolls Royce’s, travel in custom jumbo jets and yachts, have mansions and penthouses in London, Paris, Beverly Hills, the South of France, etc., hedonistic parties with western playboy and porn-star escorts, and billions in Swiss bank accounts.
This would be like Canadians risking their lives trying to cross the Bering Strait rather than go south into the United States if there was some kind of devastating civil war going on in Canada.
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This is the Wild West, something like a Walmart version of the 1889 Oklahoma land rush. The Syrians, of course, lead the pack. Syria now spends, according to the Institute on Economics and Peace, some 42% of its GDP on “violence containment”, followed by Afghanistan (31%) and Iraq (30%), Report here, page 112. Not only are these the three top migrant groups at the moment, a common characteristic of this latest wave is that about 80% are young males. In other words, something like the chain migration strategy followed by the Irish during the Potato Famine. What is not mentioned, however, was how outmigration changed Irish demography post-famine. I think we could see a similar collapse in the birth rate in Syria, which would be a huge change.
Historically, population growth has been low in Europe, with considerable outmigration. These new arriving groups have very high fertility rates and expect to match at least the average European income and resource consumption, or a 6 to 8-fold increase in household income. The official estimate of refugees this year plus informal immigration under the radar has exceeded an average of 6,000 people a day this year, or roughly the population of Estonia in the first 8 months of this year.
The numbers mentioned in, say, BBC News coverage, certainly among the best on this migrant story, refers to 5,000 “arriving” in Germany or the UK promising to take another 5,000 directly from Syrian refugee camps. In the bigger picture, these figures are de minimus. There are a variety of groups, each working very different strategies. For example, the Chinese working in factories in Romania are not on anybody’s books. Syria, as a failed state, has nothing to hide, and probably every citizen of Syria qualifies for asylum at this point. It has been through a population explosion from 6 million in 1980 to 23 million today with no corresponding increase in resources or territory. At least 4 million have left the country already, while some of the migrants come from Syria proper. US policy has been absent because a) Israel, and b) Russia. Afghanistan is incomprehensible, but it may require the emergence of a separate Pashto state before things start to change.
What is clear is that policymakers have no idea what the end game is. Migrants rarely go home, and no doubt many will integrate well with European society (e.g the Turks in Sweden). However, as seen in Denmark, many first-generation immigrants from the developing world make no effort to integrate, not even learning rudimentary Danish. This has led to the rise of nativist parties in Denmark, as well as Finland, Sweden, Norway, and a general loss of faith in EU institutions (which were mostly on holiday while the crisis ramped up) The next 20 years are going to be quite trying as Europe tries to digest its new role.
That’s certainly happening in Hungary, which is a nationalist place period. I expect that normal, non-politician persons in Germany and Austria will show such tendencies as well. Then of course, everyone will be shocked, and call the Germans/Austrians fascists and make Hitler analogies. Actually, it is GERMAN GOVERNMENT POLICY which will have led to the rise of these parties.
And your very interesting demographic analysis of Syria says a lot about the civil war. 15 million new residents under the age of 35 means that there are lot of unsatisfied people. And since Germany is now the home of many (and the recent arrivals are the START of the wave, so make sure all those volunteers with donated bottle of orangensaft do not go home, plenty more Syrians where that bunch came from), more will come to Germany. Germany could easily see 3,000,000-4,000,000 Syrians, many of them young men running in terror from their cowardice regarding Daesh (a quick calculation suggests that there are 15Mil<35, 7.5Mil male, assume increasing numbers, at least 2-3 mil are of military age [> 18] - as Syria collapses, the men are running like Brave Sir Robin as fast as possible to free beer and non-muslim German women).
Of course, some of them ARE Daesh. There are covert operatives in this wave. That will lead to fun in Germany.
One final point: I expect exponential growth in Syrian “refugees”. The analysis above and from eggrollian suggests that my predictions are under-estimates. And rent will rise in a shocking manner.
And from today’s WP: “Austrian authorities said that 2,000 new asylum-seekers had arrived at their border overnight, a day after trains took more than 11,000 people onward to Germany, where they were welcomed with blankets, food and shelter after enduring squalid conditions in Hungary.” Gonna be a wunderbar zeit ins Deutschland.