Discussion: Pew Poll: Clinton Leads Trump Nationally 41-37 Percent

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#13

That is the best live operator poll recently for Trump.

However, re the headline numbers, I would take it with a dose of salt as this Pew Poll is modeling the electorate as being 73% white, in 2012 it was 72% white, and there is nearly unanimous agreement that this year it will be about 70% white. Pew’s own analysis earlier this year suggested the electorate will only be 69% white. http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/02/03/2016-electorate-will-be-the-most-diverse-in-u-s-history/ I don’t know why they used this assumption (nearly every poll weights by race as it’s an important demographic factor) but that 3-4% difference in the white vote probably cuts Hillary by 1-2%, and raises Trump by 1%. Also this poll has very high numbers for Stein and Johnson, both of which I think will fall for the reasons I have explained before as the election gets closer. No way in a “fear” election large numbers go for a 3rd party candidate, helping elect the “worst” option.

This poll though has very good numbers for Obama (now up to 53% approval, 42% disapproval) and the Democratic Party has a net +3 favorability (49% fav, 46% unfav), while the republican party has a net -18% favorability (38% fav, 56% unfav).

Pew thought has some interesting questions, asked in a different way, which I think highlight what I believe to be both candidates very different “ceilings” in the vote.

Asking if the candidate “would be a ____ President”, 31% said Great or Good, 22% Average, 12% Poor, and 33% Terrible as to Hillary. But for Trump, only 27% said Good/Great, 15% average, 12% poor, and 43% Terrible. So 55% of the electorate say Trump would be Poor/Horrible as president. Only 45% say that of Hillary. And with Hillary the issue appears to be younger voters, 75% of her supporters over 50 say “good/great” while only 63% of those under 50 say so (the sanders supporters).

Pew also asked if each candidate would “make major mistakes that would hurt the Country” and 55% said Trump would, 44% said Hillary would. These numbers line up with the “poor/Horrible” as president numbers, 55% of the electorate say Trump would be a “poor/Horrible” president and would make “major” mistakes that would harm the Country. People answering this way are NOT going to vote for Trump. Along with other polls this suggests to me that Trump’s Ceiling is about 45%. Whether we look at issues, fitness, or these questions, Trump has a hard ceiling of somewhere between about 37 and 45% of the electorate.

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#14

Two differences here is that HRC’s margins with latino and young voters is narrower in this poll than all the other surveys. That could explain the 2-3 point difference with the other polls. Trump’s % of white non-college voters is also low but his margin over Clinton in that group is consistent. That’s why you look at multiple surveys. There’s a long way to go in this race, but Hillary has gotten the most out of her convention and has put herself in a very strong position in the electoral college to narrow the map and use her organizational advantages to win the close ones.

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#15

I think we all learned the hard way in 2000 that it’s the Electoral College that counts. If that ever looks close, I’ll start worrying.

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#16

They didn’t “push” the people they poll. Typically, good pollster will ask both questions: polling with the independents, and then ask “if you have to choose”. This also a registered voter not a likely voter screen. Typically +80% of people claim they are registered to vote but only 66% votes for President.

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#17

And with that in mind:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/clinton-rises-to-348-electoral-votes-trump-drops-to-190/

Clinton Rises to 348 Electoral Votes, Trump Drops to 190
Clinton now above 270 Safe or Likely Democratic electoral votes for the first time

I’ve learned not to obsess over these individual national polls and even poll trackers. As you said, when the EC gets close, I’ll start to worry, but both Sam Wang and Sabato have Hillz at over 340 EV on election day.

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#18

I have only seen a few polls that have posed both initial and “pushed” numbers, but in the few that have, Clinton appears to pick up some support. My guess, and it is a guess, is that there are a lot of anti-trump voters who are not yet sold (but will be by November, see my comment above about Trump’s ceiling) that when pushed go with the much lesser of two evils.

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#19

Excellent point! Thanks.

Actually, it depends on the poll and whether or not they include Johnson and Stein as options. Otherwise, not so much.

#20

Agreed, and I’m not even a bit worried about Hillary losing. What I want to see is such a massive and overwhelming defeat that the GOP is left with little choice but to work with her on a few issues (infrastructure) out of fear of losing their own base. It’s not enough for her to eke out a win, or even an Obama-sized landslide, I want her to absolutely crush him. I want to see a metaphorical evisceration followed by a castration on live television. I don’t want the GOP to be able to use the 43% BS they used against Bill. They must be destroyed.

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#21

I think Trump really needs to lose by double digits for me to have faith in this country. Not only that, but a shellacking in battleground states also will lead to Republican Senators getting booted, which needs to happen as well. I want a 7-9 seat pickup in the Senate and I want the House to be in play.

This poll is a little concerning, I’m not going to lie. Clinton is slipping.

#22

But what has happened? How has she done anything that warrants a slip? She’s done nothing wrong. This continues to be fallout from that disastrous primary in which she loses a significant portion of her natural base to utter sociopaths.

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#23

Take a look at their November 2012 and November 2008 numbers. Pew Poll has always been kind of woggly. They cast a wide net, the better to gauge temperature and pulse and mood kinds of stuff, but not so good at dialing into the precise state of the presidential race. Great job of predicting the winner, not so hot at really hitting the margin.

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#24

The point is when the national poll gap hits 6% you can stop worrying about the Electoral College.

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#25

I’m hopeful, and this is probably naive, that if we have the Senate (and obviously ideally the House) that the GOP will be busy fighting its open civil war and won’t be able to mount anything near as effective an opposition as McConnell/Boehner/Ryan did.

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#26

I don’t know. Certainly hasn’t done anything in my eyes to warrant a slip. But recent national polls seem to show she’s slipping. I can’t fathom how Donald Trump could only be down 4.

#27

Nate Silver did a piece on this - suggesting Clinton was steady, what was happening was live operator polls are in a cycle and we are now getting more “internet” or add tracking polls (like the USC junk poll) which have always looked worse for Clinton.

I happen to think Nate is 100% correct, what has changed is the lean of the specific polls, not the actual state of the race.

This is a quality poll, but as I have noted, the modeling of the electorate (73% white) is off IMHO. There is also some natural variation on sampling.

Piece is here: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-clintons-lead-is-clear-and-steady/

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#28

What does this story have to do with Bernie?

#29

On the point of the USC poll, as has been discussed on other threads, it is a trending poll of the same people every week, which appeared to start with a very poor draw of Hillary voters. I don’t think that they publish their cross-tabs, which would be interesting. Also, for what it is worth, the participants in that poll are paid for their participation in the USC poll. I think that they do that to try to keep up with their trends of the same people, but it still strikes me as off.

#30

My understanding is that they built their sample by asking people who they voted for in 2012. They then got a 51 to 47 or so split. However, as someone pointed out (can’t recall where) self reporting of votes later tends to skew towards the winner. I.e. people who voted for Romney would answer they voted for Obama. Not that many, but enough to totally mess up the sample.

There are other methodological issues. I think it works to show shifts in the election (the USC sample has moved similarly to the polls in Clinton’s favor) but not the top line state of the race.

#31

I don’t think that’s even remotely naive. That’s why I believe she needs to run up the scoreboard. She needs to win by such a large margin that the establishment Republicans are furiously trying to oust the crazies and the crazies will be blaming the establishment. If the election is close, the establishment can claim they tried and the crazies won’t be able to argue that their candidate was abandoned. We Democrats need for it to be a blowout that necessitates the RNC to flee Trump so that there will be intense bad blood among the two rival factions. The last thing we need is for them to return calling it a push.

Because he’s the very reason why the Democratic primary got so unnecessarily nasty. He created much of this mess.

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#32

To the Hillary fans–this is why I hoped Bernie would be the nominee; he’s “new”, he’d be leading the GoOPer by a lot more, as indeed he was throughout the primaries.
To the Bernie or Busters–get with the Hillary campaign. She’s Bill’s better half, she’s the progressive half of that relationship, she’s very close to Bernie on policy, and she’s running on the best platform the Dems have put together since the New Deal era. If you want a mandate for progressive politics, vote for Hillary and vote Dem downballot. You withhold your vote or send it somewhere else? Things move back to the right again. That’s how Washington DC works; the rank-and-file politicians who take their cue from how big a margin the presidential candidate gets always go for the easiest-to-get next vote, and if the “base” thumbs their nose, they turn to the “center.” Which means the right. You don’t want that.

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