I find it interesting that the Pew Poll shows such percentages going to the Libertarians (10%) and Greens (4%) , while showing the Clinton / Trump difference at only 4%. Wondering if Pew uses landlines and is missing any key Democratic demographics (say that three times).
The %'s are mostly the same. It seems like the only big difference is Stein being included in this poll but not in June’s. I hope no one’s getting complacent and deciding to indulge their pique.
Note that the June poll did not have Jill Stein and now 4% point of the 5% drop in Clinton’s lead went to Stein. Trump gained 1% point since June in this poll and is still under 40%. Not a problem.
To be honest, the methodology looks pretty good. They used both cell and landline:
The analysis in this report is based on telephone interviews conducted August 9-16, 2016 among a national sample of 2,010 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia (507 respondents were interviewed on a landline telephone, and 1,503 were interviewed on a cell phone, including 865 who had no landline telephone). The survey was conducted by interviewers at Princeton Data Source under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates International. A combination of landline and cell phone random digit dial samples were used; both samples were provided by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Respondents in the landline sample were selected by randomly asking for the youngest adult male or female who is now at home. Interviews in the cell sample were conducted with the person who answered the phone, if that person was an adult 18 years of age or older.
Thanks. In my haste, I didn’t read the methodology. Good methodology all around. With 82 days until the election, Trump is bound to continue making insane statements.
OMG! Only four points! The sky is falling!
I’m still learning and trying to understand what constitutes good methodology, but I thought the same thing. Despite some of the polling, I still think there’s still a not small portion of Bernie or Busters out there, some are going to Stein and some to Johnson. I don’t believe they’re all people who never would’ve voted for Clinton. The primary left a mark.
More numbers to make your head spin
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton
152 Shares
National: Trump vs. Clinton | 3-Way (Johnson) | 4-Way (Johnson & Stein)
National RCP Average | RCP Electoral Map | Florida | Ohio | Pennsylvania | Michigan | N.H. | Virginia | North Carolina | Clinton Favorability | Trump Favorability | Democratic Nomination | Republican Nomination | Latest 2016 Polls
It’s a national, not swing-state poll, so some of those folks are in NY and CA, thinking “it doesn’t matter which way I vote, so I’ll keep myself pure.”
Exasperating, but not necessarily alarming. At least, that’s what I hope.
Hillary has a historically high percentage of the Bernie people at this stage of the campaign. The trend is for third-party candidates to peak in August and September, and then to decline as some of their supporters realize that what’s at stake is which of the major party candidates will actually be President.
I think we will find Waldo before we find Bernie, who apparently is on some extended vacation in NeverNever Land, just waiting for the Democratic Party to come to him after Hillary is indicted for failing to genuflect at Bernie’s feet. Coming from a family that lost members to the fires, bullets gas chambers of the Holocaust, no one would be in a better position to make the case to the left wing of the Democratic Party for voting for Hillary, not just for voting against Trump. But Bernie won’t do it, because - you know - it’s still all about Bernie.
That is the best live operator poll recently for Trump.
However, re the headline numbers, I would take it with a dose of salt as this Pew Poll is modeling the electorate as being 73% white, in 2012 it was 72% white, and there is nearly unanimous agreement that this year it will be about 70% white. Pew’s own analysis earlier this year suggested the electorate will only be 69% white. http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/02/03/2016-electorate-will-be-the-most-diverse-in-u-s-history/ I don’t know why they used this assumption (nearly every poll weights by race as it’s an important demographic factor) but that 3-4% difference in the white vote probably cuts Hillary by 1-2%, and raises Trump by 1%. Also this poll has very high numbers for Stein and Johnson, both of which I think will fall for the reasons I have explained before as the election gets closer. No way in a “fear” election large numbers go for a 3rd party candidate, helping elect the “worst” option.
This poll though has very good numbers for Obama (now up to 53% approval, 42% disapproval) and the Democratic Party has a net +3 favorability (49% fav, 46% unfav), while the republican party has a net -18% favorability (38% fav, 56% unfav).
Pew thought has some interesting questions, asked in a different way, which I think highlight what I believe to be both candidates very different “ceilings” in the vote.
Asking if the candidate “would be a ____ President”, 31% said Great or Good, 22% Average, 12% Poor, and 33% Terrible as to Hillary. But for Trump, only 27% said Good/Great, 15% average, 12% poor, and 43% Terrible. So 55% of the electorate say Trump would be Poor/Horrible as president. Only 45% say that of Hillary. And with Hillary the issue appears to be younger voters, 75% of her supporters over 50 say “good/great” while only 63% of those under 50 say so (the sanders supporters).
Pew also asked if each candidate would “make major mistakes that would hurt the Country” and 55% said Trump would, 44% said Hillary would. These numbers line up with the “poor/Horrible” as president numbers, 55% of the electorate say Trump would be a “poor/Horrible” president and would make “major” mistakes that would harm the Country. People answering this way are NOT going to vote for Trump. Along with other polls this suggests to me that Trump’s Ceiling is about 45%. Whether we look at issues, fitness, or these questions, Trump has a hard ceiling of somewhere between about 37 and 45% of the electorate.
Two differences here is that HRC’s margins with latino and young voters is narrower in this poll than all the other surveys. That could explain the 2-3 point difference with the other polls. Trump’s % of white non-college voters is also low but his margin over Clinton in that group is consistent. That’s why you look at multiple surveys. There’s a long way to go in this race, but Hillary has gotten the most out of her convention and has put herself in a very strong position in the electoral college to narrow the map and use her organizational advantages to win the close ones.
I think we all learned the hard way in 2000 that it’s the Electoral College that counts. If that ever looks close, I’ll start worrying.
They didn’t “push” the people they poll. Typically, good pollster will ask both questions: polling with the independents, and then ask “if you have to choose”. This also a registered voter not a likely voter screen. Typically +80% of people claim they are registered to vote but only 66% votes for President.
And with that in mind:
Clinton Rises to 348 Electoral Votes, Trump Drops to 190
Clinton now above 270 Safe or Likely Democratic electoral votes for the first time
I’ve learned not to obsess over these individual national polls and even poll trackers. As you said, when the EC gets close, I’ll start to worry, but both Sam Wang and Sabato have Hillz at over 340 EV on election day.
I have only seen a few polls that have posed both initial and “pushed” numbers, but in the few that have, Clinton appears to pick up some support. My guess, and it is a guess, is that there are a lot of anti-trump voters who are not yet sold (but will be by November, see my comment above about Trump’s ceiling) that when pushed go with the much lesser of two evils.
Excellent point! Thanks.
Actually, it depends on the poll and whether or not they include Johnson and Stein as options. Otherwise, not so much.
Agreed, and I’m not even a bit worried about Hillary losing. What I want to see is such a massive and overwhelming defeat that the GOP is left with little choice but to work with her on a few issues (infrastructure) out of fear of losing their own base. It’s not enough for her to eke out a win, or even an Obama-sized landslide, I want her to absolutely crush him. I want to see a metaphorical evisceration followed by a castration on live television. I don’t want the GOP to be able to use the 43% BS they used against Bill. They must be destroyed.