- This is a bad question. But assuming that the Democrats are not idiots (and this occurs before the 2020 elections) if the Senate does not vote to convict, Trump loses the election, and the Senate Majority is returned to the Democrats.
That’s because the Democrats don’t have to send articles of impeachment to the Senate until they are damned good and ready, and they’ve gotten enough evidence to convince the American people that Trump has to go. When Democrats send articles of impeachment to the Senate, it will be to put the Senate itself on trial in the eyes of the American public.
- although there are no guarantees, theoretically it is stronger.
That’s because a subpoena issued under impeachment is derived from a different part of the constitution than “regular” supoenas. There are two highly relevant court cases here
The first is US v Nixon (aka the 'watergate case). In that case, the Supreme Court found that executive privilege does not apply when subpoenas are issued to acquire evidence in criminal judicial proceedings. (some people will argue that impeachment is not a judicial proceeding, but most experts disagree).
The second is US v Holder (and US v Lynch) aka the Fast and Furious case. In that case, a district court found that executive privilege gives way when congress is in pursuit of “wrong doing” in the executive branch. But again there are caveats – while the case was affirmed by an appeals court, it never reached the supreme court.
Again, there are no guarantees – but one thing is certain. Using “impeachment” can’t hurt a case’s chances in court.
- Lawfare is correct. While the current rules of the Senate seem to compel a trial, there are probably ways to get around that (mostly having to do with scheduling… for example, an impeachment would be considered “new business” and McConnell gets to decide in what order “new business” is considered). And Senate rules can be “reinterpreted” or changed in ways that could prevent a trial from proceeding.
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