I was impressed to see Benny Gantz dismiss Netanyahuâs pronouncement on annexing the West Bank as a gimmick and saying that Bibi had 12 years to do it and didnât get anything done. I think Gantz may have effectively blunted a typical late game Bibi move.
Iâm just surprised Mr. Tweet hasnât jumped in with an announcement that the U.S. is in full support of the annexationâŚ
The Israeli election is a little more than 24 hours away (Tuesday). Iâve been following the campaign. Hereâs a summary of observations:
- In 49 polls taken since the start of the campaign, Netanyahuâs present governing coalition sits at an average of 57 seats. It takes 61 to form a government. Therefore, the Likud coalition is short by 4 seats. If you look at the last 10 polls, the average is 56 seats, so results donât change much based on subsets of polls.
- In addition, the new Blue-White centrist coalition party of Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid (Kahol Lavon) are, per polls, leading as the largest single party with 32 seats (on average) to Likudâs 29 seats.
- That said, it is also the case that the parties on the center right to far right average around 65 seats in polls.
- Therefore, itâs quite conceivable that Netanyahu puts together a new coalition including some of the right leaning parties that are not presently part of his current govât to get the 61 votes he needs to form a new govât post election.
- However, Gantz, as former Chief of Staff to the IDF, a centrist and someone who is campaigning on national unity, has credibility among center-right voters. If Blue-White ends up with the highest number of seats, itâs not inconceivable and perhaps quite likely that he will be asked to form a govât and serve as the PM, and that he can do so by getting some of these right leaning parties to work with him.
- In addition, some of the right leaning parties that are not presently in the Likud led govât have beef with Bibi. Moshe Feiglin (head of the libertarian-right pro-pot Zehut (the weirdest party in this group)), Moshe Kalon (Kulanu) & Avigdor Lieberman (Yisrael Beitenu) have each left the Likud party or govât at some point. Gantzâs coalition partner, Yair Lapid, also left the govât.
- Bibi seems to acknowledge this risk, even saying to the Jerusalem Post that he thought Gantz would win the most seats and be asked to form a govât. Itâs also why he threw out this last minute âI will annex the West Bankâ claim. Heâs trying to drive up fear and motivate far right voters to ditch far right parties and vote for Likud. Thatâs the type of gamble that has worked for Bibi in the past. However, Bibi will need the far right to keep him in office and out of jail as an impending indictment looms. In addition, if this gambit does not pay off and Blue/White wins the most seats, these right leaning parties are going to be pissed off at Bibi and they might be more inclined to support Gantz.
- Israeli media are really not much better than our own. Theyâve totally underreported the criminal indictment matters and have filled the news cycle with pro-Bibi, anti/Gantz propaganda. All that said, the stability of the polls suggests that voters are not buying it. A left candidate canât win in Israel, but a centrist who can stand toe to toe with Bibi can. Gantz appears to be the toughest matchup that Bibi has had in years.
Right now, Iâd say that If Blue/White wins the highest number of seats, itâs looking more likely that Gantz will get a shot to form a govât. The gap between Blue/White v. Likud is 3 seats per polls. Itâs very tight, so weâll have to just wait for the results and then see if Gantz or Bibi is in the better position to form a govât.
Thanks for that information.
Imposing his sovereignty.
The convicts are building walls, so they can run the prison when we realize weâre trapped.
yeah, the middle east has been far too peaceful lately, we really need to stir something up down there
Kucshnerâs peace plan is going to change that.
Trump Golf & Resort West Bank.
They will save the Middle East Emergency for just before the 2020 election. Saudi Arabia, Israel and the USA will be âforcedâ in to defensive attacks on Iran and the âterroristâ aggression against Israel. This might be contingent upon whether Bibi wins his election.
Wouldnât be at all surprising. Thereâs gotta be some big October Surprise to try the rally-'round-the-flag gambit.
We can count on that.
Last time was the magic caravans, arranged via social media just in time for the election⌠But didnât work, so Iâd be certain that theyâll plan something with a bit more fireworks. Your theory of a good little war with Iran is quite plausible and definitely in line (maybe done as a narrow strike package on all their nuclear sites, dusting off the old playbook from Syria and Iraq).
Too complicated to arrange, too messy to defuse after the election. Easier for Trump to goad Kim into firing an ICBM test that lands just off the coast of California.
Just bellicose enough to get thru the election and help Israel and Saudi Arabia with their aggression against Iran.
I have also been following the campaign, and I think your summary of the current state of play is spot on. One conundrum of Israeli politics is the of the Arab-Majority parties. If they ever decided to actively participate, rather than just throwing Knesset spitballs, they could informally join an anti-Bibi coalition and put a moderate alternative in power.
Naw. See the previous strikes on the nuclear reactors/sites in Syria and Iraq that Israel did. And theyâve already had a similar one sitting on the shelves for Iran for a number of years (and almost tried to pull it off just a few years ago).
If Bibi is still there and in charge, heâd be thrilled to have the one-time shot at doing it with the backing of the American President.
Thereâs something happening here, folks. All the thugs are getting a pass with casual regularity.
Agreed. Itâs not the immediate threat of annexation that is worryingâitâs that annexation is being loudly ideated. We know where that leads.