Discussion for article #223380
Putin has no long term vision, he’s tactically focused.
The reason he took Crimea was retribution because of being stalled by Sochi, otherwise his mercenaries would have lifted Yanukovych’s gun barrels and the revolution would have been put down.
He feigned, considered, building onto eastern Ukraine for an access road to Crimea BUT, the sanctions set in place, began a bleed on his economy, one that (despite the 30 billion deal with China) is dependent long term on technology deals with western oil companies, deals that he and China cannot foster solo because they lack the technical game chops.
IF, he stepped into Ukraine, POTUS would drip, drip, drip more and more sanctions and his home spun hero cult, would eventually turn on him as his monetary systems cratered.
He now has let loose an independence genie from the bottle, one that though sympathetic to Moscow, vies a separatist agenda, one he has lost control of without troops in country to force compliance.
Yeah, Putin’s a real genius at long ball, but, he stills hold cards, Iran nukes, Syria etc. but needs to take a lesson from Wild Bill Hitchcock, to not sit with his back to the door of the saloon in Dagestan.
Right now there is no interest in Europe for sanctions against Russia. Their economy is too tightly tied with Russia. The US may find a willing partner in Poland to escalate this crisis – perhaps a Polish-US alliance can come out of this whereby the US puts in more troops and barracks them along the Ukrainian border. Maybe the Poles will convince the US to send in a few fighter squadrons and more warships into the Baltic. The two countries may consider trying some real sanctions against Russia. But we can count on Germany and France to not join in. They realize the US seriously provoked Russia by stirring up trouble in Ukraine and have to realize that Crimea is now irreversibly part of Russia. European business leaders are now focusing on trade.
Speaking of France and sanctions, the French got seriously burned by joining the US in sanctions against Iran. BNP Paribas is facing $10 billion dollars in fines from the US and the French are seriously pissed off. Putin’s goal right now is to drive a wedge between Europe and the US. I wonder what Putin and Hollande will be discussing in their meeting next week?