I don’t believe these Q polls. Other polls of these states do not indicate this.
So much yet to come with regard to continued damage to both Trump and the GOPs brand.
Not much to arouse the majority of ®s. Gingrich would be the perfect storm addition for the trifecta.
And I cannot believe that any of the other floated candidates will energize Evangelicals at the rate required to be competitive.
The upcoming RNC and Trump’s VP selection would normally be a jumping off point with a bump in polls.
I anticipate the bump to be a dead-cat bounce.
jw1
I’d like to dismiss any poll that shows this national embarrassment in the lead, however I’m seeing an increase in Trump bumper stickers and yard signs recently. He has the idiots’ vote sewn up and there are an endless supply of them. An old man recently explained to me that he really liked the idea of making the country great again. Not enough brain cells were firing to tie that hat slogan to any tangible policy, but he thought it sounded good.
very worrisome. i hope people are taking the threat seriously. this man and his supporters are for real. we are at risk. let’s mobilize accordingly.
Hillary is up by 6 - 12 points nationally but behind in Florida and tied in PA/Ohio? B.S…
No single poll at this stage of the campaign is reliable or predictive.
Quinippiac has been an outlier for several polling cycles, and unless you look at the crosstabs, these polls have no meaning and less value.
The RCP polling average has Hillary up 4.5 points, and only Rasmussen (with its well-known Republican tilt) shows Trump leading.
Whether one believes these polls or not, the fact that he is so close is disturbing. I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump ultimately wins. We are the nation which voted for Dubya(at least once) even after it was evident that he is an incompetent buffoon.
I don’t buy these polls for a second. Q-Poll has consistently underpolled minorities in these states the entire cycle. That Clinton took a small hit after the Comey report is likely and backed up by other polls but no way would she drop that much in Florida. The delta in OH and PA is more accurate - 1 to 3 points - though the starting point is off as well.
The Democratic Party just sucks. Out of touch, captive to insiderism: here the GOP is running the worst, most ridiculous candidate outside of Idiocracy, the Democrats should be mopping the floor with him. It should be a watershed election. But instead they advance Clinton–widely disliked, widely and legitimately seen as corrupt and untrustworthy, part of a family oligarchy. Trump could win this thing, because the Democratic Party has lost touch with so many voters and seems unable to articulate progressive ideas with any force. I think she will win, narrowly, but this is a blown opportunity
Many polls had Romney in the lead right up till election day(some predicted he would win “going away”)- wouldn’t put too much stock in any one of them, especially Q…
Here’s what Sam Wang has to say:
Yesterday the electoral vote estimator and the Presidential Meta-Margin finally moved – sharply, by 0.8% toward Donald Trump. This was caused by a string of four Florida polls favorable to him: two partisan pollsters plus Gravis and Quinnipiac. If this shift is real, it looks like it happened within a few days of June 25th. What would be the cause of that? Waiting to see whether it’s lasting.
Today’s final installment of “waiting to see”: the generic Congressional preference is staying high, at Democrats +8.5%, while President Obama’s approval is back to its plateau of Approve +1.5%.
Moreover,
In practice, undecided voters tend to break approximately equally. However, these “extra undecideds” may not be the same as the run-of-the-mill voters who cannot yet express a preference to a pollster. Instead, Donald Trump is underperforming in a pattern that suggests that many Republicans in red states are disaffected by his candidacy.
http://election.princeton.edu/
This will be a close election. I’ve always said so. Lots and lots of white people who should know better are anxious, frightened and angry over all sorts of imaginary crap and many, when confronted with Trump’s pathologies will assuage their guilt over supporting him by saying to themselves, “Well, sure Trump is ignorant and crazy, but how can he be any worse that any of the rest?” For these folks, destroying our country, society, international relations and further damaging the planet is a fair trade off for venting their spleens.
IT doesn’t suck nearly as much as your witless comment does.
Some people say the uncovered story of this election is how the media, including TPM, is using outliier polls to promote Donald Trump to increase ad revenue.
A lost Bernibro?
Can you cite any recent hard evidence showing that any other Democrat would do better? Other than now outdated and unrealistic polling showing Sanders doing somewhat better at Trump in some states than Clinton.
We ARE at unimaginable risk. Tragically, I really believe Trump will win PA. Hillary is the only Democrat in the world he could beat. And that is who he will face. Frightening beyond words.
Where are you from? PA? Then start working.
Jill Stein will draw ZERO Republican votes. Johnson-Weld WILL draw Dem votes. These could be extremely critical in the swing votes. Ask Al Gore.
Q polls should quit while they’re behind.
btw, same @QuinnipiacPoll that got Ohio Dem primary wrong by 9 pts. PA wrong by 6 pts, FL by 5 pts. https://t.co/httlX02ct7
— Eric Boehlert (@EricBoehlert) July 13, 2016