It’s been a dead heat almost since the beginning.
Bredesen is very popular personally—which Blackburn is not.
But TN is a red state, so she gets a bit of a leg up on that basis.
It’s all about the GOTV efforts by the Democrats.
I also think the Kavanaugh effect in the red states is wearing off a bit. We still might be able to pull this one out. Two and a half weeks is a year in the Trump news-cycle era.
How many times do we gotta say it: GOTV! GOTV!! GOTV!!!
He can win here, which is pretty incredible. Corker won this seat in '06 in a dead heat against Harold Ford, Jr., and was the only new R Senator in a blue wave year. That was the last time we have even been competitive. I donated and I am optimistic.
I share your optimism.
We’ve been working very hard on this.
It helps that Blackburn is so odious. She was my rep for awhile, then we moved from TN 07 to TN 08. We had the ridiculous Fincher, farmer preacher gospel singer, now we have Kustoff. He is fairly intelligent, former US Attorney, but he parrots the Trumpista talking points.
With Blackburn, I suspect she is not all that smart to begin with, plus she dumbs down her message, such as it is, for the benefit of her voter base.
Tennessee, it’s bad enough you’ve elected this nasty individual and Trump sycophant as your House representative. Don’t compound that mistake by electing her Senator.
fingers crossed!
I wouldn’t write off Heitkamp either, she probably has a better chance than Bredesen. ND is a much harder state to poll than TN, and she was down in the polls a lot when she won before as well.
From his look in the photo, my guess is that Trump is thinking…she’s maybe a 5…6 tops.
I thought Bredesen saved his campaign when he made the statement in support of Kavanaugh. Since then, he has pivoted very effectively back to local issues. His campaign is all about keeping things local and preventing Blackburn from nationalizing the race. He’s actually quite a liberal on issues like infrastructure investment, and a government role in health care, and he has a way of presenting things that gets buy in from red state voters. He’d be a real value add in the Senate even though he may piss us off with a vote or two on judges (note to liberals and lefties: Don’t blame red state Dems. Do better at turning out in critical elections so we pick the judges).
The average of the last 3 polls is Blackburn + 1.3%. She’s stuck in the mid-40s and the number of undecided is fairly high. I don’t think that’s good news for her. The Democratic argument about independence and working together to solve problems is a recurring theme and it’s catching on among Indies in these red leaning states. I think Blackburn has narrowed her strategy to just turning out GOP base voters and hoping that the registration advantage and tribal partisanship will get her across the line. If Bredesen gets a high African American turnout, his support among women overall (which includes white women and Indies) can get him over the line. Blackburn has opened the door for Bredesen to win this thing. He’s harder working, more creative, more innovative, more likable and more inclusive than Blackburn. This one is ripe for an upset. I can’t confidently predict a Bredesen win yet, but I do think he has put himself in position to where he might win a jump ball race.
Siena polls: Shit
Quinnipiac: Shit
Emerson: Shit
Gravis: Shit
They’re in it for publicity, accuracy is second tier.
A. No one in Tennessee can stand Blackburn, Republican or Democrat.
B. She’s a woman, and the low propensity non-college-educated Trump voter isn’t going to be excited to get out and vote for her, even if Trump tells them to.
C. People here really like Bredesen, even the Democrats who think he sold them out on Tenncare back in the day.
D. Tennessee has some of the lowest turnout numbers in the country, so any uptick in Democratic-leaning voters can have an impact. (Note that in blood-red East Tennessee, newly inspired Democrat-leaning voters put four Democrats, including three women, on the Knoxville City Council last fall in what is typically the lowest turnout election of the cycle.)
However, Tennessee is a very Republican state, so while I don’t think it’s a lock for Blackburn, it’s more likely that she wins. 538 has her at a 3 in 4 chance. I think it’s more likely she’s 2 in 3 or maybe even 60-40. But that’s just a feeling. Still, it’s more optimism than I’ve had for most recent statewide elections.
I voted and I an quietly optimistic…
