No no, NEVER stop the good news until the first SC replacement nominated by a democratic president is actually confirmed by a democratic Senate.
I wonder what percent of this is from what used to be Cuban/hispanic population in Florida that is no longer voting republican for President.
The poll is not surprising if you use Cookās figures on the likely electorate and plug in the subgroup numbers. I think HRC has room to grow among undecideds, and younger voters. I wonder if itās possible (with the help of younger white male Bernie supporters and a somewhat depressed participation rate among white males) for HRC to get back to Obamaās number among white males. If she does so, then this race becomes a 15-20 point race.
Clinton is getting 12% of the GOP vote in Florida.
12%.
holy. crap.
At the risk of offending the political āgodsā
15-20 point race puts the House in play, furreal
They have reached 0% with the African-American community in polling now. That gives them an achievable goal to shoot for!
chuckles
And youāre going to look toā¦Florida??..for that hope??
I just saw this poll has cross tabs so this might be able to be explained.
Comparing GOP
Republicans - Trump 79% / Rubio 85%
Independents - Trump 30% / Rubio 43%
Democrats - Trump 4% / Rubio 13%
Comparing Dems
Republicans - Clinton 12% / Murphy 8%
Independents - Clinton 47% / Murphy 45%
Democrats - Clinton 92% / Murphy 81%
The poll also has political ideology cross tabs but they seem to show the same sort of trend. The group where Murphy is farthest behind Clinton is, oddly enough, Democrats. I donāt know what explains that but seems to be good news for Murphy. Rubio is really doing much better than Trump with independents but still Rubio is losing to Murphy among independents.
As is the pretty constant influx of Puerto Ricans coming to Floridaā¦who are ready to be registered the moment they arrive. 
Yesā¦The Rubio/Murphy race is tightening, if not so much in this specific poll, then definitely from what the polls were showing a week ago.
The race will tighten a lot more after Labor Day and the end of August primaries.
The state Dem people and the Hillary people are told to stay neutral for now until after the primaries. That changes things once we have a candidate to talk up.
This. I expect Hillary to clean Trumpās clock in Florida. Iām more concerned about beating Rubio. Not only to pick up his Senate Seat to get to 50 & end his political career. That would make the GOP State of the Union Response during the Obama Era the political kiss of deathā¦ Bobby Jindal, Mitch Daniels, Bob McDonnell and then Rubio.
Then we got to get Paul Ryan and Joni Ernst.
Here is an interesting aspect of this election:
The NYT article discusses the role of early voting, and how debate performances influence those early votes. Every single one of the aspects discussed hurts Trump, in my estimation (unless you argue that he is sure to crater worse the closer he gets to November 8, a point that may well be true).
Clinton is going to be able to lock down wins in various states before the beginning of October, and shift resources to broadening the map.
Bodes well for down ballots here.
Rubioās lead over Murphy is down to 5, according to the Monmouth poll (an outfit 538 assigns an A+).
Wait til after the primary is over. Murphy should start to catch onto Clintonās coattails.
The Asshole Channel. Roger Ailes will be hired as Director of Programming and Chief Talent Recruiter. Matt Drudge and Rich Lowry will be hired as political talk show hosts. Rudy Giuliani, Donald J. Trump, Michelle Fiore, Katrina Pierson, Sara Palin, Ollie North, Tom Cotton, Carl Paladino, Roger Stone, Dinesh D"Souza, Mel Gibson. Some of those guys from the History Channelās Ancient Aliens series. There will be a Latino Segment after prime time hours with some of the folks from Babalu Blog. Netanyahu will be a frequent guest. Sheldon Adelson will subsidize the operation of the channel so it will be completely free. The slogan will be: All Assholes, All the time.
I fear, though I hope Iām wrong, that with Ailes joining the Trump campaign, things may begin to turn around a bit for the Donald. Ailes will certaininly influence the ads that will begin airing this Friday in Florida and other swing states. He will help the Donald find a way to avoid debating Hillary three times. He will help tailor a msg that could begin to bring more Republicans home again to the party. I remain hopeful that for all his evil genius, perhaps even Roger Ailes may find it impossible to rein in the Donald and keep him on msg for the rest of the fall campaign. But IF he does, things could begin to tighten significantly, and the last few weeks of the campaign could be less certain. I hope Iām wrong, but Ailes could be the gamechanger that so far has been absent in the Trump campaign so far.
I think Hillary Clinton can take their best shot. And there will be a political cost to having Ailes on board, even if they try to lie about it and say no, because he was just sacked after MULTIPLE women came forward to destroy his denial of Gretchen Carlsonās claims. It also does not help him to be seen as chickening out of debates, for all the Macho posturing he and his hateful spokespeople(Baldassaro, Giuliani, Paladino) have done.
Colorado is firmly in the HRC column too.
The problem with that is that Hispanic turnout in Texas has just not been that good.
State polls are what to watch. In 2012,when Willard briefly lead in the national polls,the needle hardly budged in the state polls. Willard never got to 270 in the state polling.