Exactly. We have an electoral college in these here parts.
Another day, another bullshit “Poll”.
The poll was conducted May 15-19 among 1,000 national voters who were HOME during the DAY and were so lonely or confused that they were willing to be interviewed on their land-line phone.
TFIFY.
In this upcoming election, Clinton will have to overcome irrational hatred, and Trump will have to encourage more irrational support.
It will all come down to GOTV.
National voting isn’t how we elect Presidents. So, there is that.
But, she is still up 3 points in this poll (and more importantly up in the poll aggregators, which are including the always silly Ras polls and Fox polls), despite the fact that a sizable minority of Democratic/likely Democratic voters are still backing Sanders
I am not getting too interested, one way or the other,about these until after the conventions, and both sides receive their post convention bumps.
Come on guys, we know that until Sanders drops out the polling won’t be that accurate and we know a week or two after the conventions we should trust polling aggregates. Anything they do now is a waste of time.
What the polls are not showing is that Trump is at, or near, his “ceiling” with likely voters. The millions of new registered minority voters are highly-likely to favor Hillary. Just sayin’
Sanders needs to get out of the race.
Should also point out that these same voters gave Sanders +15 in a hypothetical matchup with Trump.
Don’t worry folks, he’s the unelectable one.
IIRC, only 66‰ of Sanders voters told this pollster they’ll vote for Clinton against Trump. I’m guessing that number will end up around 85-90% after the convention.
Also, can someone explain to me how, if women are the majority of the electorate and Trump’s losing women voters by much larger margins than McCain and Romney, he’s anywhere near close?
He will, and Dems will have their “come to Jesus” moment.
I know that many are anxious and ready to see that happen now, but a true artist knows that anticipation makes a climax more profound. Beethoven, Mozart, Brahms, etc. know that you save the best stuff for the finale.
Yes, and it should be pointed out that Sanders isn’t well known, hasn’t been attacked, hasn’t been at all scrutinized, and a not small % of his voters are behaving like petulant children by refusing to vote for the person who voted with their candidate 93% of the time.
Until the end of the primaries, polls are totally useless and after that, national polls are useless.
I am wondering how the undecideds will break (yeah, I know, it’s weird to think anyone would be undecided in this election.) My guess (or wishful thinking) is that they will tend to break democratic. It seems unlikely to me that anyone who was thinking about supporting Trump wouldn’t already be willing to tell a pollster that.
There’s no need for him to dropout just yet, and I know you’re being facetious, but he needs to tone it down and stop lying to his gullible supporters.
“Also, can someone explain to me how, if women are the majority of the electorate and Trump’s losing women voters by much larger margins than McCain and Romney, he’s anywhere near close”
Good question and one I have wondered about many times myself. “The woman vote” is often treated as some small if significant portion of the electorate. But we know they are in fact the majority of voters and, supposedly, Trump has a 70& disapproval rating with them. OK, approval vs. disapproval rating does not directly translate to “will vote for vs. won’t vote for.” But still, roughly speaking, to my unsophisticated mind you would expect that something like 67% of men would have to approve of Trump to end up with these sort of poll numbers. I’ve never seen an indication that he has anything like that level of support among men. So what gives?
Bernie is playing this out very much the way Hilary did when she was running against Obama. She didn’t drop out until after the first week of June.
I don’t think the GOP are uniting behind Trump so much as uniting against Clinton. The polls won’t be a good measure of what’s to come until after the Dems unite behind one candidate.
I can tell from my social media accounts that friends who vote GOP are “liking” anti-Hilary memes. When I glanced at the comments, I found all the usual rants about Benghazi, and Monica. Nothing much new, except for the person who pinned Watergate on to the Clintons. Trump will say anything and these idiots will rant about it, that’s a given. But I think Hilary has a lot more material to expose on the Donald, information about him that wasn’t really well known by the majority of people. I would prefer to watch her expose “the real Donald” than to watch team Sanders have to deal with the inevitable, but I am afraid we just have to wait a bit.
I am thinking that Trump will win but the citizens deserve to have Trump if they are can’t vote for the first women President. Really, what has Sec. Clinton done to deserve the hatred of the white men of America. We know what Trump has done to get the women against him. Women bodies are “objectives” for him to judge just like a horseman judges a horse. We know why Mexicans are against Trump as they are rapist and he is going to build a wall to keep them out. Oh, yeah, the Muslims. But what has Sec. Clinton said or did that deserves such hate? All politicians make speeches, what is wrong with making money when someone will give you hundreds of thousands of dollars to give speeches. At least no one else was hurt unlike Trump in his law suit of Trump University, the bankruptcies that he has filed, the hiring of illegal immigrants to build his business, paying no taxes. I just don’t understand why Sec. Clinton is judged negativity when other politicians do the same thing with no consequences, why Trump can say something one day and say the opposite the next day with no consequences of flip-flopping, yet Sec. Clinton said something in 2008 or earlier that is different today and she is a flip-flopper. The only idea that I have for their hatred is her laugh, her screaming all the time, that her judgment is faulty. Trump states that the prove of this poor judgement is the decision on Libya, there is a webcast that Trump created during that time that supports the administration’s Libya decision. Do you understand how stupid this all is, Trump is saying Sec. Clinton supported Libya which shows that she has poor judgment and the media does not point out that when the decision was made, Trump agreed with her. We deserve Trump if our media only tell us the news in sound bites, tweets or polls, and the American people are willing to accept this failure of the media and not do their own research to go beyond the tweets and sound bites.
If you look at the polling history for past Presidential elections, Spring polls haven’t been very predictive for November outcomes. Polls done in the spring of 1948, for example, gave Dewey a ten point advantage over Truman.
Also, Humphrey was beating Nixon by 5–6% in the spring of 1968, Carter was beating Reagan at this point in 1980, Dukakis was beating Bush in the spring of 1988, Bush was beating Clinton in the spring of 1992, Kerry was beating Bush in the spring of 2004 and McCain pulled ahead of Obama a few times in the spring of 2008.
Early polling isn’t always wrong but, unless there is a popular incumbent running for reelection, early polling isn’t much more predictive of actual election results than a coin flip.
I wasn’t being facetious. I think he needs to drop out and support Clinton and stop deluding his supporters into thinking he can win, because he can’t. He’s just helping Trump at this point.