Given the way Trump will push the Hispanic community to get out to vote, I suspect the Democrat is in better position than the polls seem to indicate.
Nevada is a notoriously hard place to read, and apparently, a hard place to poll.
That’s DEM Senate seat # 51. DNC Pedal to the metal on voter outreach and registration.
Then the same thing in Arizona so we get Senate seat # 52, by finally getting rid of Grampy Cryptkeeper.
Man I hope NC can turn back to blue on both national and state levels. And that’s not easy for an NC State grad to say with to blue rivals!
The Hispanic community is harder to poll than even the black community and are notoriously underpolled. I’ve heard time and again the Hispanic registration is up dramatically in reaction to Trump. If I’m understanding likely voter screens correctly, those newly registered voters would be excluded from likely voter screens.
They are underpolling this year. @Culinary226, which is the largest union local in a “right-to-work” (right to scab?) state in the country, has been running citizenship drives and voter registration drives in both LV (today one of the great union towns in the country) and Reno, and for that matter in Phoenx. Culinary 226 is also Unite Here Local 226. Unite Here is a legacy of the great International Ladies Garment Workers Union.
The torch of radical union women has been passed from the Lower East Side to Las Vegas. Immigrants and their daughters, most of them, in both times and places.
As Cesar Chavez taught, and Dolores with and after him, el pueblo unido jamas sera vencido.
Estas mis hermanas are my heros, the face of union democracy. The path forward goes through Las Vegas, not through Mill Valley. Sez a gringo who knows more people in Marin than in Vegas (but Reno, where I know even more, is also a Culinarry 226 town).
There is a wonderful picture of one of the Culinary 226 marches on the Trump Hole in Vegas, featuring a knot of tough-looking redneck Teamsters, supporting and joking with their brown-skinned sisters. Those boys may love their guns and their pickup trucks, and their wives may love their pastor :-), but they will not be voting for Trump in November.
The women weren’t going to anyway, but unlike elsewhere in Sagebrushistan they won’t hide that fact from their husbands. Maybe they hide it from the pollsters, though. Messing with the outsiders is the national sport of Sagebrushistan.
Nevada is an awesome place. Mainly we consider neighbors like the Bundies part of the local color, and regret when they stray over state lines (sorry Oregon).
To be clear, I am Californian, but the Bundies had to pass through my Sierra County, for about 5 miles between Bordertown and the Lassen County line, before invading the Malheur bird sanctuary. Maroons.
In the previous century, the Sheriff and loggers of Sierra County established a fortified position at Truckee Summit because of a concern that the Hells Angels would try to invade, in order to wreak vengeance on Hunter S. Thompson. So yeah, Nevada is weird, but California is weirder. And when the going gets weird, the weird turn pro (HST 1974). I don’t think we could have organized that against the Bunditistas.
@Culinary226, with their comrades in Unite Here Local 11 (Culinary Workers in Los Angeles) is also actively supporting citizenship and registration (and GOTV ground game in November) in Arizona.
These ladies (mostly) are the beating heart of the labor movement right now. McCain is in real trouble, and the polls don’t, can’t, know it yet (since the Hispanic mobilization is an out-of-sample event).