Discussion: NBC/WSJ Poll: Clinton Up 7 Points Nationally Among Likely Voters

It’s clear that only quality phone polls like this one show the actual state of the race. As with fivethirtyeight.com, internet polls are only decent for determining trend as opposed to absolute spread. simply put, larger internet poll sample sizes do not overcome the sampling bias excluding categories of likely voters more predisposed in general to Clinton than Trump. Even if they weight based on demographics.

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Polls are driving me nuts. Trump’s up. Clinton’s up. I should probably stop paying attention to polls.

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Nice trend lines,lets keep 'em going…

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I tell myself that every day! And every day I check the polls …

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Republicans who rushed to embrace Trump’s toxic campaign during what appears to have been a transient surge will now have to wear that albatross around their necks.

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Not bad for a candidate on her death bed. I guess we can cancel the funeral, eh, miserable CONS?

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I’m going to enjoy watching the Clinton/Obama commandos chop the Trump family and their merry band of sociopaths, fanatics, grifters, and thieves into chum.

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I remember when Elizabeth Warren told Clinton’s staff, ā€œDon’t screw this up.ā€ I thought it seemed a bit rude. Now, every day, dozens of times a day, I am thinking the very same thing.

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Polls will make you nuts. And after the debate Monday night we will be getting more polls. I’m following the electoral vote count at 538 mostly.

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The most meaningful polls will be the ones that come out after the first debate. That debate will be the first time the two candidates can be evaluated directly. If it was a normal debate based in facts, Clinton would win it in the first ten minutes, because Trump can’t touch her knowledge. With the Trump factor, and his ability to pour out lies, it’s a bit more of a question how it will go…though I suspect Clinton has a plan to confront him on that. In any case, that set of polls will likely tell us who will win in November.

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The poll aligns to the state polls we’ve seen this week: PA +8-+9; NH+9; FL: 2 polls at +5; WI: +3 to +5. NC: -1, -2, 0. I had a hunch when I watched Clinton speak in FL today. She didn’t mention or allude to Trump until the end ā€˜love trumps hate’ punch line.

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This I believe. And I’m glad to see it, to put it mildly.

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Yo tambien!! :laughing: ja ja!!!

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:smile:

Polls are showing trends. That’s good news. They also won’t show the effects of GOTV or lack thereof. The poll I trust most is the exit poll, and even that has had bad moments.

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Unfortunately the tossup state polls are hair-raising. Currently Nevada and Ohio are Trump’s. All he has to do is win Florida and North Carolina, which are pretty much dead heats, and he’s president. Yep, it’s that close.

Presidential debates need to be pitched at two levels simultaneously, the same way a good Disney movie has jokes and parts of the plot pitched at kids, and others at their parents. One debate level is based on policy, and clearly Clinton is going to smash Trump there. The other is based on ā€œlooking presidentialā€ and ā€œdo I want a beer with this personā€ and ā€œdo they sound toughā€ and other lightweight idiocy; Clinton’s problem in these things is that she’s not super charismatic. That said, I’ve read that Clinton has psychologists prepping her with just how to needle someone with Trump’s psychiatric issues… and if that is true, it could be amazing, since he can’t help himself from blowing up when his ego gets pinched.

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This was entirely predictable. Hillary was certain to rebound from her bout of pneumonia and Trump was equally sure to overreach because a couple of polls showed him ahead. Polls always lag current events a bit but it seems that reality has kicked in after all.

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Thank you because that’s how I see this poll.

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