Discussion for article #227722
So basically, he looked at the polling in NC and CO. In CO Udall has always has a consistent lead and the only threat there was pure right wing hype when the swapped out a completely unelectable candidate for one just mostly unelectable. The actual numbers in the race never changed.
In NC, there has been movement, as Haganās support is starting to consolidate around her now that the republican primary is fading in the rear view mirror and Tillis is being exposed for beingā¦well, Tillis, ie. the leader of perhaps the most despised legislature in NC in 50 years.
So far this year, Silverās special sauce isnāt turning out all that special. But at least he is grudgingly admitting that maybe there really isnāt a republican wave out there after all.
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Republicans may need to decide whether to consolidate their resources
The GOP is rapidly approaching its ārock and a hard placeā moment. If they focus on keeping what they have, they effectively cede the rest of the country, and that doesnāt add up to 270.
If they try to expand, itās unlikely that they have the resources to retain their existing coreā¦The left has made steady progress down the eastern seaboard, and some progress in the far west a well.
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NYT Tracking poll has the chances of either side winning virtually even.
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Sam Wang at the Princeton Election Consortium has Dems favored . Projection = 70 percent chance of holding the Senateā80 percent if the election were held today.
The GOP has to run the table and fend off challenges in normally safe states like GA and KYāat the very least, they have to burn through a lot of cash defending those seats.
I donāt get why everyone in the āliberal mediaā thinks it is a slam dunk for them.
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Republicans still have the edge. Hereās why: To get to 51 seats, theyād only have to win in all the Senate races where polling shows them consistently ahead. While holding on in every state where theyāre currently favored, Democrats would have to engineer a real upset in one of races where the GOP is favored to win the 50 seats they need.
The states where thatās a realistic possibility are all red: Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana and Kansas (assuming that Orman would caucus with Democrats). There are strong candidates and organizations on both sides in all five of those races (although both Roberts and Orman in Kansas may be special cases). So itās all about the turnout. Hereās to hoping that the Dems GOTV in this off-prez year is better than ever.
Democrats have always had a problem of getting its base out to vote. Too many lazy people who donāt watch the news and understand the issue to understand the dangers facing them (yes, the GOP is a danger to America and society).
Pres. Obama really has not done a great deal during his term to help the poor and middle class America, but thatās not entirely his fault, heās had a difficult congress to deal with.
Because of the hardships so many people still face, they are angry at both parties. I do hope theyāll realize that being angry shouldnāt translate to staying home and not vote because staying home will only be to their detriment.
I wonder if the Scotus believes enough time has passed since handing that election to Chimpy the Decider to go ahead and hand over more elections to Republicans.
The democratic party needs to launch a GOTV campaign of a size and scope not seen before. Voter turnout will be the determining factor on whether the democrats win or lose the senate.
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Florida dems are conducting a pretty aggressive vote-by-mail campaign which just might surprise the heck out of the GOP come november.
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The real reason for the change in his prediction is that Nate has stopped putting his finger on the scale in favor of the GOP by including irrelevant data like Obamaās approval ratings. In other words, Nateās Senate model is getting closer by the day to the one Sam Wang has been talking about for three months, and so Nate is now getting similar results.
Letās face it, since becoming Fonzie on Election Night 2012, Nate has jumped the shark.
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Does TPM employ proof readers?
Agreed. I donāt know if he has lost his stride or what, but he hasnāt been the same since he left the NYT.
His focus has shifted to sports and burritos. The political reporting seems more pro forma than in the past.