The optimal scenarios. Also known as wishful thinking…
My thinking all along has been this is not something any party can be in control of. Dems are in control of the process now but not of what the process ends up doing.
The reality seems to be that Dems will run investigations in the House, because they have to. And that will take them to impeachment. Or maybe not. Given the alleged crimes, impeachment seems inevitable. And if so, ideally we want the president impeached in both houses. However, politically speaking, losing Senate trial does NOT automatically endanger Dem chances in the 2020.
Indeed Clinton prevailed. But Clinton was NOT accused of criminal activity. He was impeached for bad judgement. The reason Clinton prevailed was because GOP was bonkers to go after him that way.
But if you accuse someone of serious crimes, of treason, with compelling evidence, and you present it compellingly, and the jury still acquits him - that’s on the jury, not you. And the reaction to unfair political judgement, if understood universally that way, is visceral. And lasting.
Also comparing this to Ford almost winning elections after Nixon was forced to resign is not a convincing argument. Why? Because Ford was foisted on Nixon by the GOP just after Agnew was removed from the succession line for being worse than Nixon. Moments before the constitutional crisis. Ford was put there precisely because he had an appeal and decency even as his party did not. He was put there because he was NOT Nixon man. He was a moderate Republican. Pence is radically right wing Republican with misogynistic tendencies. A VP who showed undying support for criminal president. Good luck, Pence.
Given that, Dems need to realize that a) this will happen or won’t, just relax, do your job well and b) if it happens, or rather when it happens, losing Senate vote is not the worst case scenario.
In fact, not following thru with impeachment, when it needs to happen, IS the worst case scenario. So in my mind the question of impeachment isn’t “Should we?” but “If it comes to it, how to do it right?”