No, that’s the thing. Right-wingers never tire of stating their own “facts” and then clamping their little bulldog teeth down on them as hard as they can, in spite of wind, rain, snow, sleet, or data. It’s kinda cute.
Thank you, @ottnott, for that brilliant and detailed takedown.
The whole point is to depress numbers of people who respond. It’s to strip them of representation in Congress and the states, and to destroy Democrats. Given the open racism and nativism of the Trump regime no other conclusion makes any real sense.
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There is, in point of fact, no such research. The ASA (of which I am a member) has released a biased comment about the census and the citizenship question. I will be signing a statement opposing it. And the Census paper is not based on “facts”. You cannot show bias before a question has been asked.
Including myself, a statistician with 35 years experience since my Ph.D.
The census has changed MANY questions in the years of its use. A simple example is the “Race” question. You used to select one of the choices. Now you may select multiple items. That simple choice made the census questions from before the multi-selection to after the multi-selection incomparable.
The statement of relevance here is “a foolish consistence is the hobgoblin of little minds”.
There is, in point of fact, precisely such research, no matter how much you clearly wish to deny its existence. Denying it doesn’t make your case; it just makes you look even more foolish.
And I will note that you have not acknowledged that your earlier comments in this thread were rather foolishly incorrect. Are you prepared to be honest and admit that you got your basic facts wrong?
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None of which have anything to do with this discussion. Thank you for playing. We have some lovely consolation prizes for you.
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Just to bring the discussion back to what matters about the citizenship question:
The GOP wants to put the question in for 3 reasons:
- It will lead to an undercount of both citizens and non-citizens in areas with a lot of immigrants. The GOP believes that this will lead to a net shift in Federal funding and electoral votes in favor of the red states.
2.The GOP believes that it will give the GOP-controlled states flexibility to achieve further partisan gain through redistricting. A number of red states have indicated that they would like to consider some subset of total population when drawing districts. Currently, courts demand that maps create districts that are as equal in total population as is practical. In a case where a court turned down an attempt to draw districts with equal citizen population, one argument against such districting was that the Census data was not adequate to ensure that maps had districts with nearly equal citizen population.
3.The question brings additional stress and fear to households that have at least one person who can’t show documentation that they are in the US legally. Although the Census Bureau is not legally permitted to share household-level data with other US agencies, it is reasonable for people to believe that the Trumpp administration might violate that restriction. And, even if there are no such violations, it is a simple matter for ICE to target enforcement on the basis of non-citizen population in a census tract (or whatever is the finest-grained data ICE can legally obtain).
Adding the citizenship question to the census would be in service to an administration that is whipping up fear of immigrants (legal and otherwise), has stooped to abusing children who arrived with one or more parents seeking asylum, has devoted resources to breaking up families by deporting people who have spent decades in the country as law-abiding productive Americans with citizen children, and is now detaining people who have lived decades in the US as citizens since birth and threatened them with deportation unless they can somehow prove to ICE’s satisfaction that their birth certificate is legitimate.
Fuck that.
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I’ve know a lot of statisticians like @nickdanger. Seldom right, never in doubt.
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That rather charitably assumes that he’s telling the truth, which is not necessarily a safe assumption to make. Elsewhere, he claims:
I too work in STEM/IT, or did until my retirement last month. There is no shortage of IT/STEM workers. We graduate enough.
Given the ignorance of that statement, as borne out by my 30 of experience years in this profession, including 15 years as a hiring manager, including stints with Microsoft and Amazon, I rather doubt that Nick has the expertise he claims.
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And this is what Nick absolutely does not want to, and will not, discuss, as it completely destroys his talking points. The data are clear that the question was added precisely for the reasons you cite and that the discussion about adding that question began almost immediately, months before they came up with their phony excuse about why they added it.
I train STEM graduate students, so, yeah, there is a shortage. Without non-USA-natives, we’d be graduating less than half as many. It’s why we have student and H1B visas.
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