Discussion: Moody's Analysis: Trump's Policy Plans Would Trigger A 'Lengthy Recession'

That may explain why the Chinese are considering floating Mexico a loan to pay for the wall. They and the Mexicans are coming to recognize that a wall may not be a bad thing as it will keep Americans locked in, just as they now are in Kansas. The last thing any country wants is a major influx of economic refugees.

However, one does have to feel a bit sorry for the Canadians as the loan they will need is so much bigger, because their wall will need to be so much longer.

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You are absolutely right and in a rather curious way Donald Trump agrees with you, as he has promised that the one key hallmark of his presidency will be his unpredictability. No one, not even the Donald, will have a clue as to what will happen from one moment to the next.

Although this approach does have its appeals to insiders, who can seize the momentary, fleeting initiative, the downside is that most everyone else will be without a clue as to what their next move, strategy, purchase, or financial consideration should be. Everyone will pause waiting for some outcome to clarify.

As the reality that the economy has become paralyzed sets in, financial panic will ensue almost immediately as the wiser begin to recognize that they must flee just about every asset class, perhaps even dollars and precious metals. Many investors will be like deer in the headlights on an oncoming vehicle moving at high speed (like I was during the dotcom bubble).

That Trump already is a drag on the markets is one reason that most of Wall Street is beginning to openly support Clinton rather than Trump, since even though they may not always agree with her, at least they understand that Democratic administrations consistently favor stronger market conditions than do Republican administrations. Consequently, they are likely to make far more money with Clinton in office rather than Trump, who likely will favor his own business interests before theirs in most affairs of state.

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Probably because the two comments are not the same.

Although I am in agreement with Moody’s with regard to the direction and perhaps even the order of magnitude of negative effect on the economy, I am rather disappointed with Moody’s for not following through an indicating what kind of formal downgrade they will assert as the various components of their analysis meet their expectation points. It seems they missed a tremendous opportunity to show their professionalism.

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A person close to the Trump campaign said such analyses rested on flawed assumptions about policies that haven’t been fully fleshed out by the campaign

So, what are they waitin’ for?