Discussion: Midterm Results Put Dems' Structural Disadvantages On Raw Display

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One other Democratic handicap you didn’t mention: Democrats still have to work extra hard to overcome the strong strain of racism and xenophobia unleashed by Trump and Republicans throughout the land.

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The Florida referendum to grant the vote to felons adds 1,000,000 potential voters to a state that is typically decided by 100,000 votes or fewer. The Senate will be tough for the foreseeable future, but keep in mind that there is a decent likelihood of a recession between now and late 2020 given how frequently they occur historically. A President with 40% approval in boom times could easily be at 30% in bad times and at that level all bets are off.

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This is why complacency is not an option. In my perverted way of thinking, if last night had been too easy, I could see Dems falling back to their old ways. Under this scenario, we have tasted a bit of winning and we keep the motivation to want more.

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Not to mention the decades-long program of voter suppression Republicans have been engaged in, the nakedly partisan gerrymandering they do, and the ceaseless propaganda about “voter fraud”. They are a party whose philosophy and ideas are so bankrupt that they can only hope to cheat, lie and steal elections. (A bunch of FOX News tools responsible for a cult of personality doesn’t hurt either.)

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“Midterm Results Put Dems’ Structural Disadvantages On Raw Display”

It did no such thing. The battles for the Senate were, ultimately, ignorant redneck racists versus reasonable and decent people. The former are still predominate in the South and much of the Midwest.

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Way to start, make a loss out of a victory! The ink isn’t even dry on the ballots, jump off a bridge and get it over with!

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“Democrats still have to work extra hard to overcome the strong strain of racism and xenophobia unleashed by Trump and Republicans throughout the land.“

See, e.g., Florida elect GOP governor DeSantis, an open racist.

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Rocks, trees, and empty space sure get a lot of representation in the United States Senate.

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The somewhat surprising losses of Dan Donavan, and John Faso in NY are another bright spot from the election. I expected Dan Donavan to easily win NY-11 again. Faso’s loss is less of a surprise in NY-19, but I thought he might have eked out a win, but he lost.

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I take no pleasure in noting this because the human cost is going to be HUGE and probably ugly, but tRump’s trade war with China is going to crush the farm economy of the mid-west. Those farmers and everybody up and down the economy that depends on those farmers are probably not going to be feeling so sanguine about tRump and Repubs in general when the chickens come home to roost. Right now, the mid-west is pretty solidly red, but it may not stay that way.

As others have noted, Democrats still have to overcome the racism, xenophobia, and malignant nationalism that is rife in the region, but tRump and Repubs are going to get the blame when people start losing their homes and their farms.

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With regard to the Senate, a citizen of Wyoming has 69 times the representational power of a citizen of California.

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Pretty much; they went into this with a gigantic disadvantage and many of these races were won because of outright cheating. There is no fix for that except to vote in greater and greater numbers

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I was trying to think through how Florida’s voting rights restoration would translate into net new votes for Democrats and read a couple of articles about it. There is some history on this issue. When Charlie Crist was governor he restored rights for about 150,000 felons. The down side is that turnout among this population tends to be extremely low - under 20%. African-American are dramatically over-represented in the felon population and 90% of A-As in general register as Democrats. Among non-blacks who had rights restored in the past, Republicans had a modest advantage and there were a lot of unaffiliated voters.

Assume the following: 1.5 million people with rights restored. Felons with rights restored are 50% black. Turnout of 15%. 90% of black vote for Democrats. Small advantage for Republicans among non-blacks. Net gain for Democrats of about…90,000 votes? That’s not much in the context of 1.5 million people - but more than enough to swing statewide races.

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We need to be like the Sand People (Star Wars): Return…in greater numbers :wink:

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I know the US is not a real democracy. We’re a representative democracy. Well, that’s not working as it should either. Last I checked, Democrats were on track to earn 57% of the aggregate votes for House races. 57% of the 435 seats in the House equals 247. Democrats will actually win 228 seats, maybe a couple more. So, we got 57% of the votes but only 53% of the seats.

We will always “waste” some votes by running up the score in heavily partisan districts but we are losing seats to flaws in the system and Republicans’ anti-democratic gerrymandering efforts. In a fair system that faithfully represented voting majorities, Democrats would have about 240 seats right now, not 228.

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Scott’s up by 40,000 votes and DeSantis is up by just over 50,000 so 90,000 would have swung those races and probably a couple of House races as well. But we shouldn’t accept a turnout of 15%. If we do, then shame on us…

All States are created equal?

That’s where the seeds of the Civil War were sown.

“It’s not realistic to expect Democrats to win the popular vote by seven points every election”

…that may be better judged in 2020 hindsight.

That is the single most important thing that happened in this election, and will turn FL into a “leans D” state. As has been noted, a lot of felons are black, probably will register D, and will make it much harder to win for Rs. If Gillum runs again in 2022, he should have a much clearer path to a win.