Schumer and Pelosi see an opportunity and are using it to further the D agenda. That’s good politics. Trump lacks the experienced staff and guiding principles to draft new legislation (ref: see Muslim ban) and Nancy and Chuck do. Good for them.
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It’s brilliant politics. We end up going into the midterms as the only party who can get anything done and by extension, the only party that really cares about something beyond party.
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This could go a few ways:
Trump says FU to Mitch, has Pelosi and Schumer draft the legislation, gets a GOP co-sponsor and forces Mitch/Ryan to bring it to the floor. They could refuse, but they’re wimps and would have to deal with Trump’s wrath. They’ve never been good at handling it. Trump could just torpedo their tax plan. He really doesn’t need it so long as the economy survives any hurricane bump.
If GOP stands their ground and pushes back on Trump the way that the GOP did to Bush when he brought up comprehensive immigration reform or the House when Obama got a deal done in the Senate, then they could push Trump to the right and force him to cave. In that scenario, DACA becomes Trump’s problem with Sessions to deal with. Sessions has his conservative AGs ready to file suit on DACA. Not sure how tax cuts get passed in that environment.
An optimal outcome for the GOP is that DACA becomes Trump’s problem and GOP gets its tax cuts.
An optimal outcome for Trump is a grand bargain: border spending, infra spending, tax cuts, DACA, ACA fixes.
Optimal outcome for Dems: DACA, ACA fixes, border spending, no tax cuts.
Optimal outcome for Dems if GOP kills DACA legislation in Congress: no tax cuts, border funding or anything in Congress, Trump forces Sessions’ resignation, Rosenstein becomes AG, Trump extends DACA program, Sessions testifies against Trump/Pence and others, pleads guilty to a charge of making false statements.
Likely outcome: probably nothing. DACA may die in the House, though I think there may be 40-50 votes for it. Battle returns to Trump v. Sessions. Anything is possible there, including the stomach churning deportation of DACA kids. My ideal in such a bad situation: Mr. Beauregard tries to go out with a white sheet and guns blazing. It turns into a Tarantino style shoot out where all the GOP crooks eat it (politically, if not legally).
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A good bet. Mitch and Paulie have a limited number of adaptive responses. It looks like they’re setting up a good-cop bad-cop act such as they’ve used in the past, Trump’s "big-hearted, Paulie and Mitch “practical conservatives”. But the political part of it makes it funhouse-mirror stuff.
Sad!
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Mitch: Can I have my allowance a day early?
E.C.: No.
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Where it will die.
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True. I think McConnell and Ryan actually want to pass a DACA bill. They know the optics on this are hurting them and would like to get it done and move on.
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“We look forward to receiving the Trump administration’s legislative proposal as we continue our work on these issues.”
Translation: We’ll get on this as soon as we schedule hearings for Merrick Garland.
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