Discussion for article #228594
I was not aware that itâs a 3-way race or that it was that close. Interesting.
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Wow! Sounds like Pressler and Weiland need to sit down and have a serious discussion about whatâs best for the country.
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Is every post you make just an excuse to flog your site? Because your URL is sure attached to them all.
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Yeah, this one has surprised a lot of people, myself included. Kansas I saw developing, but not South Dakota
Pressler can win this. Weiland probably cannot.
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It actually depends on a lot of things including turnout. If this is a state where the first to the finish line wins even if itâs below 50%, then the Democrat has a chance especially if the scandal continues to weigh down the Republican and the Democrat can push forward up through. Itâs a long shot, but it isnât a done deal.
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Thatâs not going to happen for a few more weeks, if ever. I have seen polling that suggests either would beat Rounders right now, so its a certain amount of playing chicken. Pressler could probably pick up more of Weilandâs voters than vice versa, though.
What would be interesting however, is if Ormand and Pressler both winâŚwould they form an independent caucus with Bernie Sanders?.And if that trend continued for a few more races in 2016âŚthey could actually become a very powerful caucusâŚvoting one way sometimes, and the other way at other times.
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Look at it from a different point of view though:
The survey numbers in the Aberdeen News story especially tell the tale. Weiland is about as high as heâs going to get. Itâs now down to people deciding between Rounds, who is apparently not that great a candidate, and Pressler.
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I think more attention should be paid to how skewed the polling numbers have been for the last two Senate elections. In 2010 and 2012 the Democrats outperformed the polling averages in 20 out of 20 Senate races that were considered âtoss upsâ or âleans Demâ by Real Clear Politics.
Thatâs a very significant trend and it was by no small margin either. The average each Democrat beat the RCP polling average was by 4.5%! That was for more that 100 total Senate polls in 20 out of 20 races. That canât have happened by chance so be very skeptical of any poll for a close Senate race.
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You will notice that I did not say that it was a shoe in or that it was impossible. I said that there are a lot of factors still in play. I learned through working in the business that articles can make things seem the way that the author wants them to and that they are not bias free. Thus, for every article there will be an article which refutes it in some manner.
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RCP has been shown to have a Republican bias, so it makes sense that Democrats will outperform their prognostications.
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Very true. The âin houseâ estimates regarding how many Republicans are going to vote has been skewed in a lot of polling houses.
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It isnât just RCP, though. It seems many polling houses have been skewed towards the Republicans not necessarily because they favor Republicans, but because they havenât shifted their thinking away from the âcommon knowledgeâ views.
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Wasnât trying to take a jab at you, just pointing out what I had seen elsewhere.
I personally tend to trust sources closer then sources farther away, so the Aberdeenâs coverage would seem to ring truer to me.
Plus the idea that in a very red state like South Dakota, the mainstream voter (for that state) is still trying to decide between Generic Right-Wing Fairly-Bland Republican and Mavericky Populist Resonating Republican, also has a truthy feel to it.
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Rachel had a segment about this race a few weeks ago, before the CON scandal came to light. She said to keep a watch on this race, as it could be another upset like Kansas is looking to be.
She had on the Independent candidate, who used to be a Republican, although a very moderate one, and whom actually endorsed Pres. Obama and voted for him twice. He said that his old party was just way too extreme for him any more, and he actually sounded much more liberal than many of our red state Dems ever have. Either the Dem, or this Independent upsetting this race would be just fine with me.
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RCP leans Republican, and always has.
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True, that and landline polling is over-represented still.
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Anything that keeps a guaranteed vote out of Mitch (or his successorâs) column is a win in my book.
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Itâs okay. I just spend a lot of time analyzing things. This particular race is very likely going to the Republicans, but Iâve also seen three way races where the top two knocked each other out in the end because voters thought âeh, it doesnât matter if I vote to support MY candidate, someone I like will winâ. Thereâs just too much uncertainty this cycle for me to get excited about analyses and polling data.
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