Discussion: Marquette Poll: Wisconsin Senate Race Tightens Dramatically

What the heck changed?

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Dark money got inserted into the mix.

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Wisconsin seems to have crashed and burned since the 1970s when the U. of WI was one of the Midwestern university vanguards in protests against the Viet Nam War. What happened to that state anyhow? Why is Ron Johnson attractive over Feingold? Johnson is the same horrible pos that is their sickening governor after all. Then again, they do have THAT governor, which fits perfectly with Ron Johnson’s presence in the state government. Looks a lot like the same horror story as the IL and MI state governments anymore, not to mention the even worse state of IN (where I grew up and will never go back).

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The poll is pre-tape, pre-debate. A lot’s changed since then. I believe DCC polling showed that the generic Republican was paying a 7 point penalty against a generic Democrat regardless of whether they abandon Trump now or not. I need to track down my source on that.

While a generic ballot tests shows a Democrat up by 7 points over any Republican lawmaker, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s poll — conducted nationwide by the Global Strategy Group — shows the Democratic candidate has a 12-point edge if the Republican recently withdrew their support from Trump. If a Republican lawmaker continues to support Trump, the private polling shows they are at a similar 12-point deficit.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/10/10/house-democrats-believe-trump-troubles-give-them-real-shot-at-retaking-majority/

I read that as “the tape has cost Republicans 5 points regardless of their reaction now.” This may have been true in instant polling after the revelation, though surely will have subsided by now to some extent.

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I haven’t been following this race closely—is Feingold making the same dumb, self-inflicted mistake he made in 2010, when he refused to accept outside money and refused to put out “negative” ads?

Absent that, it’s kind of odd that the polls would have moved in this direction when they seem to moving in the other direction all over the country.

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I don’t believe it.

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Looks a lot like the same horror story as the IL and MI state governments anymore,

Walker, Snyder, and Kasich are all governors purely and only because a significant portion of the alleged Democratic “base” can’t be bothered to get off its ass to vote in midterms. The decline in turnout from 2008 to 2010 and from 2012 to 2014 was 40% for the Dems in WI and MI, and I’m pretty sure the declines are around that steep in Ohio.

There is no greater political task facing a President Clinton than reversing this pattern; if she and the DNC can’t figure out a solution, she’ll be every bit as hamstrung as Obama has been in Congress, and the state legislatures will continue to be run by Koch-fueled anti-government troglodytes.

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I honestly have to wonder how much a liberal champion like Feingold is actually managing to get hosed by Bernie supporters who think they’ve attained enlightenment by voting for some 3rd party fuckwad. Seriously. Feingold is truly one of the good guys.

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If the Dems did a better job connecting tRump to the Repubs up for election, then the Dems have a good chane to regain the Senate.

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Wisconsin loves grabbing.

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I dont buy it…there is no way Johnson is behind by 7-10 for over a year and now he’s within 2…I dont buy it…

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The guy who runs the Marquette poll is a republican. Though their final polls have a very good track record, there seems to be a Rasmussen effect with the outfit in the polls immediately preceding the final poll before election day - ie the pollster has their thumb on the scales in a way that is advantageous to Rs and uses their credibility as a pollster to help shape the campaign narrative. In this case, give RoJo some good numbers to give his campaign some help (he needs it). In the cases of off year state elections (like scottie for guv), the Marquette poll often shows good numbers for the dems before coming to a more accurate R margin of victory for the final poll. A good way to motivate the R base to turnout in those cases.
I highly suspect the final poll from Marquette will have Russ winning at the 3-6 point margin that he will most likely win by.

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Well. Marquette has an extremely good polling track record.

Hopefully this an aberration, but if we’re learned anything from this year, expect the unexpected.

Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Colorado and Illinois were in the “likely win” category. Now only Illinois and Colorado are left. Now we need to win 4 out of 8 toss ups.

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While I agree with you that Feingold is one of the good guys, I never thought he was going to win. And I still don’t. If he does it’ll be a true miracle. Why? Because this is the same state that gave us Scott Walker 3 times not to mention Ro Jo. And the answer to that from WI Dems appears to be “dark money” “Koch money” “Clinton is ____” etc.

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All four are still listed as likely wins on fivethirtyeight except PA which is finally tending toward McGinty. Where are you getting your information?

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One poll may just be a statistical outlier, so I’d take this one with a grain of salt. When a couple more come out and show Feingold closer then it’s time to be concerned. I haven’t seen any news about this race, has something happened that might explain this? Or are the Republicans doing something behind the scenes to sabotage Feingold’s chances? Johnson is a waste of space, having Feingold back will be a great thing.

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Scott Walker and endless Koch money happened to Wisconsin.

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Eh, Wisconsin also gave us Barack Obama twice during the same years. Walker won in two midterm, extremely low turnout waves and a special election. Johnson won in one of those waves. To me, it remains to be seen if Walker and Johnson’s elections are a function of historically low turnout, or real change in the electorate.

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Simply not true. The pollster is not a Republican. Furthermore he has a well deserved reputation for integrity and technical ability. There are no fingers on the scale; that’s an absurd accusation in this case. Wisconsin is a hard state for Democrats and for pollsters. There are dependable Democratic voters all over, especially in the southwest and to a lesser extent the far north, but Democratic victories absolutely hinge on two populations that the Republicans are doing their best to suppress and whose turnout in the best of times is unpredictable: Blacks in Milwaukee and student voters in Madison and the other college towns. Maybe the poll catches a decline in likely voter numbers in these populations, though Clinton’s ongoing lead in the presidential race confounds that interpretation. My guess: negative ads are having some effect and this poll caught some statistical noise. Feingold should win; I think the next Marquette poll will suggest this more strongly.

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