Discussion for article #229476
Shifiting turnout intentions? Does that mean all of a sudden there’s been a huge upswing in Republican voter’s intending to vote, or that have already voted via early voting?
Usually both, or that they are changing their likely voter screen. Basically at this point, the pollster is taking a guess on voter turn out and how stringent the voter screen needs to be to consider someone likely to vote.
Its a close race that will turn on getting out the vote.
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Most polls are using the likely voter model from 2010—hence the repeated nonsense about Republicans having another “wave” election.
There is no way that this race has gone from more-or-less tied to a 7-point advantage for Walker.
The overall polling averages still show a near-tie.
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I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again. These “spot” polls are now rolling out from the “usual” right-leaning pollsters to try to “Work the Refs” and influence voters.
It’s just not possible to see such a large swing in a relatively stable, tight race like this.
The only reason to release something like this is to depress the Democratic turnout as much as possible by “demoralizing” them.
This is happening ALL OVER THE COUNTRY from the “usual suspects” in pollsters.
It is not a coincidence it is part of a plan by the RNC.
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There is no way that this race has gone from more-or-less tied to a 7-point advantage for Walker
That was why I was puzzled as well. I couldn’t figure out any reason that all of sudden a tied race jumped so far in either direction unless they had results from early voting tabulated.
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The poll found Walker with 50 percent support while Burke got 43 percent support among likely voters. Two weeks earlier a Marquette University poll found the race tied with Walker and Burke getting 47 percent each.
And two weeks before that earlier one, MU Law’s poll gave Walker a 5 point lead.
Seriously, TPM, why are you teaching us to be stupid about what polling results mean? There is a margin of error on these polls for a reason, and the moves over the last 3 polls are all within that margin.
I’m not calling this a bad poll (don’t unskew me, bro). I’m calling this yet another innumerate interpretation of a poll by a TPM writer. You have the expertise in your organization to educate all your writers on how polls are conducted and how the results should be evaluated.
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Yep. A 12 point swing from 9/25 to 10/26.
I assume that was a typo – it was a 2-point change in the margin.
Walker was at 50% a month ago and 50% in the most recent MU poll.
Burke was 45% a month ago and 43% in the recent poll.
WTF? I can only suppose that everybody with any brains left Wisconsin for warmer climes, leaving those behind who couldn’t figure out an escape strategy. Now the predators like Walker move in to pick off the stragglers and they are so dumb they don’t even begin to realize they are what’s for dinner.
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He certainly deserves reelection, what with his exceptional job creation, his fostering of an atmosphere of cooperation, his concern for working people and his desire for equal pay for women, as well as women’s reproductive freedom.
Really, what’s not to love.
inSincerely,
Koch Propaganda Inc.
PS Fuck off disinterested Wisconsin Dems, you pathetic shiteaters.
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Interesting “logic”, ignoring that there remains a strong voice for ousting Walker (by this poll, 43% of likely voters). I’ll grant you that there are some dumb stumps in WI, but the brains have not abandoned the state entirely…yet.
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The Marquette poll has a been pretty much the best one in the state to date, based on results.
However, this massive swing, in the absence of any news that would boost Walker, or hurt Mary Burke, seems really weird.
I live in Wisconsin, and if anything, I was feeling like Burke was surging.
However, 99% 93% percent of Repugnicants being classified as likely voters seems really skewed. You can’t get 99% of any group of folks to do any one thing!
[edit] Whoops, read the percents wrong. 93% is still high, but not ridiculous.
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Lies…paid lies by the kocks…
Now the truth is out:
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(As others have noted) two weeks ago Marquette had the race tied; now they have Walker up by seven. Obviously one (or both) is incorrect.
In the two weeks between, there have been four or so polls all showing it to be a one point race, one way or the other.
So, for the seven point margin to be right, Marquette had to have been (very) wrong two weeks ago AND the other pollsters (very) wrong as well.
Or this seven point poll is incorrect.
Which seems more likely?
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Is this the effect of attack ad saturation with the attendant voter disgust and “a pox on all their houses” rejection of the whole process – an effect of money flooding the airwaves that benefits the more ideologically-motivated Republican base over the Democrats’ “eh, whatever” average voter?
That large a swing requires Marquette to have changed their model, alter their assumptions, between their two polls, which is apparently what they’ve done. I’d guess they’d be able to reanalyze their data from two weeks ago with their current model and recast the result, presumably showing a more consistent track.
We’ll see on November 4th whose assumptions were better. Polling has been pretty wonky in many races this cycle. Seems it’s hard for more pollsters than Marquette’s to predict just who is going to vote and who has checked out of the process this time around.
WIsonsin has very limited early voting so this race is different than in other states.
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The pollsters’ final attempts to
(a) drive the narrative leading into the election in order to influence the election results and
(b) guess it right so they have bragging rights
has now gone into full swing.
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“shifting turnout intentions as big factor in changes”
Translation: We’re trying to incorporate the effect of restrictive voter suppression efforts by the GOP/Teatrolls into our polling methodology.
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