If itâs true that Mueller knows a lot of things he canât use in open court, and is thus engaged in campaign of parallel construction which depends on Manafort flipping, then Iâm surprised these talks failed.
Perhaps Manafort made unrealistic demands? Or perhaps investigators have found a path that doesnât depend on Manafort, whose value has diminished as a result?
The talks fell through due to issues raised by Mueller, according to one of the Journalâs sources.
It sounds to me as if Manafort perhaps just wanted to plead guilty, or perhaps even to reduced charges, without admitting anything or cooperating in any way.
Usually the government is just as happy to avoid the expense and uncertainty of presenting a case in public. But this is not usually. I think Mueller wants to lay the whole deal out in full for its effect on the rest of his investigation.
Traitors listen up. Softball season is over. It is hardball.
This almost certainly comes from Manafortâs lawyers and is being leaked by them to a paper they know Trump reads to rattle Trumpâs cage and try to galvanize him into delivering on his pardon promise. Given that, one questions whether they were ever in those talks in good faith. The issue raised by Mueller might have been âcould you pass me the water pitcher?â
ETA: Alternately, it could be that Gates has given him everything Manafort could have.
We know Papadoupoulos engaged in bad faith. And every action Manafort has taken throughout this process has been obstructionist in nature. From all the frivolous lawsuits against the Special Counsel to demanding separate trials to wanting to be moved then changing his mind, heâs made it clear heâs not going to help Muellerâs case in any way unless he has to.
Manafortâs already looking at significant jail time with more years to be tacked on in DC. Itâs his life. He can throw it away for Trump and Putin if he wants, I suppose. Mueller can probably wait him out.
These discussions are said to have taken place while the jury was out. Did manifarts lawyers think their holdout was going to upset the whole cart?
The headline is wrong.
The better take is, âManafort Attorneys Acknowledge Outreach for a Plea Deal w/Mueller for the First Time.â. Plea deals arenât successful on the first try. This leak did not come from Mueller. If legit it came from the Manafort side (assuming WSJ doesnât go to print with unconfirmed 3rd party sources).
What weâre seeing is basically a âFlip Alert!!!â. Manafort is informing both Trump and the OSC that he wants to get a deal somewhere. Mueller has the best deal to offer as well as the leverage, however. Mueller has Gates in hand plus a bunch of State AGs ready to pounce on Manafort should a pardon be issued. Trump probably couldnât craft a pardon inclusive enough to help Manafort while keeping his own liability exposure limited.
There will be more twists and turns in this story, but Manafort needs a deal before the 2nd trial starts. Trump is being pressured by others, with outside people being brought in (like Tom Barrack), to avoid the pardon. If Trump doesnât pull the trigger on the pardon, he is looking at resignation as an option that will loom a bit larger. The election result is no longer relevant to whether he faces trial. A loss by the Dems will extend and make the end more painful, but it will all end badly for Trump.
Manafort still thinks he is in the cat birds seat. That man is such a sleaze I would love for him to get nothing from Mueller, go to trial and lose it all. He is as smarmy as his patron.
And Mueller is throwing at your head.
The WSJ journalist called into Melberâs show and couldnât confirm any real specifics about any of this.
Muellerâs team doesnât leak, soâŚ
Iâm curious how you can know this. Is there something about the announcements themselves, or the way they were made, or knowing how prosecutors decide when and what to release? Or is this based entirely on reasoning through the strategies and options available to all the parties?
Just think if tRump pardons Manafort on the charges he canât plead the âFIFâ.
Manafort is facing charges in the second trial that have much more to do with his Russian and shady Russian-backed Ukrainian deals.
even tRump would have to blanche at a pardon attempt for these counts.
âItâs so unfair. Heâs a good person who conspired against the United States. So what? So did your favorite (I hope!) president!â
yeah, Manafort flips soon or his goose is permanently cooked.
So many more charges against Manafort are pending. Heâs done, one way or another.
Flipping might help mitigate some or a lot.
Trump could go down there and run the plea negotiations himself.
Lots of people are saying he should. Heâs so good at deals and winning, heâd get Manafort to go to jail for every crime and to pay the governmentâs legal fees! And maybe even a confession for things that arenât crimes!
âThe Art of the Schlemielâ by Paul Manafort, soon to be published.
It is likely Manafort just wanted to plea bargain and not flip and the prosecutors wouldnât buy it.
But, keep in mind, knowing what we and the prosecutors know now, Manafort has at least one more trial and maybe a retrial on the undecided charges from the outcome of last week.
Manafort can give them Little Donny who then likely give up everyone else through Jared and Ivanka.
Does it feel like a bear trap in slow motion?
A little sweet chiiiin muuuusic
The election is coming up, and the conventional wisdom would be that Mueller wouldnât interfere with it if Manafort went to trial that involved Russians.
heheheh