One of the most annoying narratives in politics is the idea that a competitive primary bloodies the eventual nominee. If anything, the opposite is true. In the last 4 elections, and in 5 of the last 6 the candidate with the most competitive primary either won or exceeded expectations. Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, George W Bush in 2000, Kerry in 2004 (2004 was a bizarrely competitive election for a wartime president who maintained over 50% approval for nearly the entire campaign) and I’d argue Romney 2012 given how he savaged Obama in the first debate and was within a point until the last few days of the campaign.
Clinton was always going to be the nominee and gains nothing by going through one of the least competitive “competitive” cycles in recent memory. In 2000, 2004 and 2012, the incumbent party was serenely confident in their unbloodied nominee’s abilities going into the first presidential debate. In all three cases, catastrophe.
Good guy with horrendous timing. If he had switched to the Democratic party in 2004 or primaried Bush as a Republican in 2004, he would be a hero for the ages. As he handled it, he was more like an actor who wandered onto the wrong movie set.
Chafee was the last Liberal Republican - maybe the last true moderate Republican to be in national office. He never had much rationale to be in the race for the presidency, though.
He wasn’t raising any money either. You have to collect signatures and pay a fee to get on the state ballots. You have to have staff or volunteers to collect the signatures. He had none of that
Most folks didn’t get nasty about them. Most wondered why they were running because they were unlikely VP nominees too. The rest were indifferent as I was. I have nothing against Chafee or Webb.They’re both good men and honorable public servants. I just didn’t see them as serious candidates. In this cycle,they didn’t do enough,soon enough to show they were serious candidates.
Webb certainly had nowhere near the profile or history needed for a presidential run…it was just…weird. If there had been some strong “draft Webb” movement, then ok, maybe…but even then, I think he was slightly ambivalent about his time in the Senate. I have to agree that his record wasn’t long enough. I also think he came off MUCH worse on stage than he is in reality. That’s not being ready for prime time as a candidate.
As others have noted about HRC’s performance at the latest Benghazi hearing, she has the chops to be poised and cool in the hot glare of the spotlight. She’s not at Bill’s level of game, but she’s leaps and bounds above Chafee or Webb, and while I love Bernie’s policy stands and I also think he’s tough as nails and poised, his schtick is Brooklyn Crank, not quite “Presidential”. Webb got brittle, and fast.
I guess I was talking about some of the commentary I’ve seen here, particularly on the stories covering their departure from the race.
I have to agree they both utterly failed to assemble much of the framework of an organization even, before publicly sticking their toes in the water. That part is unimaginable to me. Every serious candidate has exploratory committees years in advance of publicly tossing their hats in the ring.
I was less puzzled by Webb, who I honestly think was angling for a VP ticket - ala Biden - to give Military chops to a “dovish” Prez - than Chafee, who is really a man without a party - a RINO-DINO combo.
The Speaker fiasco, along with the polling in the GOP primary race have had me wondering the same thing.
With the establishment figures of the party getting rejected in the polling and routed from the House leadership, the party is being dominated by two similar groups: Republicans who don’t give a damn about reality (Trump draws their support) and Republicans who aren’t acquainted with reality (call it the Carson wing for now). Neither group can run anything, because they are prone to disastrous collisions with reality. They can’t remold the party, because they have no vision to follow. They know what they don’t like when they see (or think they see) it.
I’m pretty astounded at the unraveling.
The various pieces of the GOP still will mostly unite in opposition to Democrats, and will remain the dominant power for now in many states, but I have a lot of trouble seeing them get through this turmoil without some permanent damage.
I kind of feel sorry for the guy that even this isn’t getting much notice. It just happened today and already it’s at the very bottom of the TPM page, below yesterday’s articles.
