Definition of black swan
"An event or occurrence that deviates beyond what is normally expected of a situation and that would be extremely difficult to predict. This term was popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s book “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.” Mr Taleb is a finance professor and former Wall Street trader.
He took his title from the shock that Europeans experienced when they discovered black swans in Australia. Until then, their data told them that all swans were white, so the discovery was unexpected.
A black swan in markets is an event that has not occurred in the past, thus rendering useless risk management models based on historic data. Such a risk model would assume that all swans were white.
Mr Taleb suggests his idea has been misunderstood. The problem, he told the CFA Institute in 2008, is not that black swans occur often. Rather, it is that they have truly catastrophic and unpredictable effects when they do happen, and so risk managers should concentrate on guarding against them."
Yeah, I’ll buy that.
Let’s hope he’s more the Great Pumpkin.
Did Jones remind Kush that his supposed Black Swan ISN’T on the ballot for the midterms?
“I don’t know, I mean, I see mixed data,” Kushner replied.
It’s all about how the different models factor the continued effectiveness of Russian interference.
“Catastrophic” being the key feature that marks DT as a player who has “been a black swan all his life.”
That only applies in the literal real world. In the Trumpistan world of alternative facts the Con-in-Chief told his crowd of sycophantic worshipers in Southaven, MS that “I’m not on the ticket, but I am on the ticket, because this is also a referendum about me. I want you to vote. Pretend I’m on the ballot.”
More “Black Shirts” than “Black Swan”.
Yeah yeah black swan. Do they teach about regression to the mean at Harvard and NYU, you dumb fuck? Do they teach whether 49.9 is a bigger number than 41.3? Moron.
But that’s not how it works! If Rs lose, it wasn’t trump’s fault and he wasn’t on the ballot anyway. If Rs win, it was definitely all trump.
And just like his whole life Trump was helped to fail upwards by another force(s), first it was his father, and in the election had Mercers and Putin. Just like you Kush.
"I see mixed data,” Kushner replied.
“On the one hand,” he continued, “our polling is bad, but on the other hand, the GRU says not to sweat it.”
He’s a black swan. He’s been a black swan all his life.
Damn …
To refer to donnie as anything with the ’ B ’ word in it …
I sure hope the base doesn’t catch on —
Can’t have anything ’ B ’ in the WH …ya know ! –
Him?
He means “dad”.
He finally spoke for the first time in forever.
So Jared is counting on malfeasance by Russian hackers and bots again?
“We’re just not gonna count the all the votes, and we’re going to be brazen about it. That’s why we’ve pre-seeded the media with the whole’mob’ idea so that when you take to the streets to protest, we will send our supporters out to bash heads in and say we told you so.
Whoops! Black swan!”
Black Swan or a Dial being turned?
2016 felt that way.
the shorthand term for unexpected and impactful events
like a meteor hitting the earth
like the bubonic plague
like Krakatoa
Jared, we’ve both had excellent educations. I suggest that you use one of the above in the future. “A black swan” - while in vogue now, still jars with the actual characteristics, especially physically, of 45*.
Hey Kushner, you can stuff that Black Swan up your ass!
How ya like that?
Kushner doesn’t"t have the faintest idea what a black swan event is.