Discussion for article #229609
What is the record of this particular poll in accurately predicting races in Iowa? Did this poll change their “likely voter” assumptions for this poll, or did their assumptions remain the same as the last 2?
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That blows. Makes GA a must-win race.
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People get the government they deserve.
And as Extreme Elvis once said; “every generation gets the Elvis it deserves.”
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I recognize that this pollster has a generally good reputation, but when you see poll after poll showing this as a 1-2 point race either way, you can see an outlier. This poll does not reflect reality. The only way this poll will reflect the actual results is if it depresses Dem turnout, which it might. With that in mind, I await other polls on this race.
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If that dumb cow wins I’m throwing in the towel, America at last will have hit the bottom of bottoms.
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The author does not appear to understand how a “margin of error” operates. The margin of error applies to both participants in the survey. So, Ernst could be as low as 47.3%, and Braley could be as high as 47.7%. The lead is not “outside of the margin of error,” as reported. It’s close, but not quite.
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Joni “Hogballs” Ernst will be the postergirl for what ails the nation, if she gets elected.
If not, she’ll fade into the past, a farcical footnote to be referenced by students of the future who are looking back at the ridiculous realm we almost inhabited.
If she wins, it will represent the past ruling the future, and in doing so, inhibiting that future from unfolding.
Ernst represents everything that is wrong with America, from her tea party pride to her down home hypocrisy.
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Worth repeating.
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Increasing your lead by 6 points in a short period of time, without a catastrophic event, is very, very unlikely. I’m not predicting who will win here, but I assure you that it won’t be by 7 points. Sam Wang has Ernst by 1.9 points. We’ll see, since the massive registration efforts by the D’s might be skewing these polls (since it would be unlikely they would be polled).
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Even in Iowa 701 voters is not a lot of people.
Since I live in GA, it’s definitely a must-win race for me, and believe me, I’m involved! I took Monday and Tuesday off for GOTV, and at least in Savannah, it’s now a very coordinated operation.
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Yeah I mean that’s generally enough for a somewhat decent sample but what is more of an issue is that they polled a more Republican-friendly electorate than what exists. It’s shameful honestly.
And how does the 6 to 7% error made last time because they couldn’t poll mobile phone owners plus the margin of error plus the common practice of deems telling polls to stuff it and GOP embracing it. That’s a lot of variables anyone that calls this now is a fool
I salute you.
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Heaven Help Us if this is true.
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I simply cannot fathom why Americans are compelled to reward stupidity.
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I’ve said it before and will repeat, Iowa polls are freaky. Go back to the point on the chart where Braley led by about 6 and draw a straight line to the final election results once they come in, and then compare it to the wacko chart that the polls have produced, and you’ll see what I mean.
If there is anywhere the media has become adept at milking the desperate right for more ad revenues, it is in Iowa. Their “First in the nation” caucus status has created a unique gamesmanship. And we all know, it is primarily conservative PAC money the papers, TV stations and radio stations are vying for, so as long as they can convince them there’s a chance, they’ll keep pumping that easy money into their ad revenue coffers.
If Ernst’s real numbers had been published all along, Iowa would have been off the gravy train.
Call me crazy, tell me I’m wrong, but I made the same prediction when they said Romney was tied with Obama in 2012, almost none of these polls I am speaking of had Obama up by more than a point or two, and Obama won by 6.
If those polls had been accurate, the Romney PAC money wouldn’t have been spent there the way it was.
Don’t be naive, folks. REMEMBER, the final beneficiary of all that PAC money isn’t the candidate, it is the oldstream media.
I’m not dissing some of the new generation of pollsters we have come to know and respect and rely on, polling can be quite accurate if done fairly, but they don’t do it for accurate results any more, some of them do it to lure more PAC money to their elections.
And Iowa is one of the worst places for it, Obama’s drubbing of Romney in 2012 is a good example, and more than a few polls desperately tried to pose Romney as the sure winner in Iowa, even when the numbers were NEVER there for him. Some of these polls never had Obama over 45-47%, I’m talking about the ones like American Research and Seltzer that never once showed Obama near 50%, yet he won with 52% to Romney’s 46%.
Somewhere they were wrong, and I think they do so intentionally and I think it is still happening. Ernst is a dirtPAC magnet, as long as her poll numbers seem close.
Once the election is over, we’ll see how far off this is. For now, all the pollheads here can call me stupid, but if so , why was I right in 2012?
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Two things if Ernst wins:
One, why has Iowa gone so stupid so fast, and Two, where the hell was Harkin?
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Why is it that Americans always need to “throw the bums out” in midterm elections? And wasn’t Iowa almost “safely blue” instead of eternal swing state? Tut tut tut…
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