This election is going to blow a lot of models out of the water - everywhere.
The guy is RFK and Obama rolled into one. If anyone can win in that environment, it is Beto. Really impressive guy with an authentic presence and a unifying message.
I think/hope Beto is closing the gap at just the right time. The latest poll has him down only 3 points. I would not be surprised if it isn’t even on Election Day with Beto’s GOTV efforts pushing him over the edge. Damn, I love that guy.
The status quo favors Republicans as they control every statewide office in Texas. So anything that shakes up “business as usual” favors Democrats. An uphill climb, but doable!
I am so tired of disappointment that I am afraid to hope in this instance . . . but I am so tired of despair that I think I will give hope one more try.
“O’Rourke has trailed Cruz in recent public and private polling by anywhere from three to eight points.”
Still waiting for somebody to address the accuracy of telephone polling in the Age of Caller ID.
What Americans take calls from numbers they don’t recognize these days?
How self-selected and unrepresentative are those samples?
Are legacy polling methods in 2018 just another “Dewey Defeats Truman”?
I don’t think Beto can win. He’s run a great campaign but we democratscdid little to register qualified voters in the past several years. The state is still too republican. I would love to be wrong about this but I doubt that I am.
“I can stand the despair, it’s the hope that’s killing me…” John Cleese, “Clockwise”
I’m with you - afraid to hope, but going to hope anyway. As a Tennessean, I fear Bredesen vs Blackburn will go down in sadness for America, but perhaps there’s still some hope left for Texas. I mean, if folks can’t beat Ted Cruz something is fundamentally broken in our spirit.
I think so. I think it a lot.
I’m happy to hope even though my head tells me the Vaseline-drenched reptile is going to win this one. Regardless, there is a moral victory here already in a candidate who is both authentic and speaks his mind in a way that brings people together.
Texas gonna be Texas but, in 2020, if Dems can nominate a candidate who has the “uniter” appeal like Obama, a lot of voters are going to be desperately hungry for that kind of change.
I won’t be destroyed if Beto doesn’t pull off the near-impossible. It leaves the presidential 2020 primaries his for the taking. But I have a funny feeling that the pro-Cruz polling to date doesn’t capture what is going on. As 2016 taught us, there are significant opacities in polling at state level.
I don’t think Beto can win. He’s run a great campaign but we democratscdid little to register qualified voters in the past several years. The state is still too republican. I would love to be wrong about this but I doubt that I am.
Doug Jones would disagree.
I think he’d have a really tough time ousting Gillum should he win his race. If Beto loses, though, I think Gillum/O’Rourke is the perfect unity ticket even if I hate the fact that it’s two men.
Gillum is superb too. So cool under fire. But he’d have to quit being FL governor, and I’m assuming he would not.
Urban areas of Texas are blue, with Austin leading the pack. But, somehow, rural rubes and bumpkins still harbor deeply racist views and tend to vote for the republican just because he/she isn’t a Democrat. If polling is off due to missing first-time voters and young people who have cell phones, it might go for Beto. (There were quite a few instances in TX where a straight-ticket Dem vote flipped only the Senate vote, not the entire ballot; so it was very hard to catch the mistake. More GOP scumbaggery and voter fraud)
Well it is too late to change my mindso, I am betting on Beto.
He’d only have to quit if he won the nomination, but yeah, it would be rough to be a governor while running for president. It doesn’t seem to stop Republicans though.
Beto’s GOTV methodology doesn’t track with the vintage polling techniques. He gathers email addresses and cell numbers from the campaign, qualifies supporters and gets them registered and to the polls.
Unlike pollsters, Beto doesn’t screen for “likely” voters (who voted in recent past).
So, “voters” who show up on polls are different from those who actually will vote this year.