Discussion for article #240856
Is this in hopes of getting Jeb! out of the race? It’s hard to see why Carson and Fiorina would beat this guy.
The other candidate beating Jeb is Jeb
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The only reason Big Door is in first place is because people are thoroughly enjoying him putting the wood to regular politicians.
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Can we please stop it with the Iowa fixation? They are completely unrepresentative of anything other than being a small population state of mostly white swing voters when it comes to the presidential election. And at this point, neither Trump or Bush is remotely likely to get the GOP nomination.
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This is what I have been saying from the start about Trump. He is the 2016 edition of Ron Paul. He has a small percentage 15-25% of die hard supporters but not much reach beyond that.
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The real question is can any Republican win without the Trump 30%? Will they actually vote for any of the establishment candidates in the general?
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This idiot doesn’t want to be Prez…just likes all the attention.
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Yep…
Some of Trump’s off-the-cuff rhetoric does seem to be catching up with him. Fifty-nine percent think his comments on Fiorina’s appearance were inappropriate as well as 49 percent who think his comments about Columba Bush were inappropriate.
Since it seems that came from the same poll, and I’d wager my hat that those questions were asked before the head to head matchups, I’m going to say that this poll isn’t worth much since it primed the respondents on how to respond.
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He was the Flavor of the SIlly Season. He’s going to trump himself out of the lead but he still might be a “king maker”.
Head -Beating! What an entertaining idea for choosing the TeaPub NomNomNominee!
The numbers look pretty bad for Trump, even worse for Bush, but this isn’t going to get down to a head-to-head by Iowa. On top of that Iowa has had zero predictive value on the GOP nomination in recent years.
This is an interesting data point but I’m not sure it has any value beyond amusement. Here are Trump’s head-to-head numbers for laughs.
Leads
- Bush 51/37
Trails
- Carson 60/33
- Fiorina 54/36
- Rubio 53/38
- Walker 51/37
.
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It’s even less important than that. In 2012, Rick Santorum barely beat Mitt Romney in the January caucuses, but won zero national delegates at the state convention in June. Ron Paul, who finished third in January, collected the most delegates overall.
This isn’t a very useful poll. It only tells us that outside Trump’s base of support, he’s one of the least popular candidates. So what? One thing we know almost for fact is that there will still be at least a half dozen or so candidates still in the race, so no one is likely to garner support above 30% or so. With the size of the field, it’s highly unlikely anyone is going to capture 50% or better.
Also, this is Iowa, a state with an extremely religious, socially conservative Republican electorate who are far less likely to be susceptible to Trump, yet he’s still polling way out ahead of his establishment, religious rivals.
This is not a good poll for the GOP because it still has Trump winning, and Trump, Carson, and Fiorina’s combined total is well above 50%. Three worst-case-scenario candidates are killing the combined total of even the remotely electable candidates. That’s gotta be scary for the GOP.
Also, Trump doesn’t need Iowa. Nobody really does to win. He needs a respectableness showing, and then he can go onto win NH, SC (he’s way ahead), and NV, and the narrative will be all about Trump being the respective nominee.
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My gosh! It looks like poor Scotty Walker actually had a good idea on his way out the door.
Trump always takes about 33% of the GOP votes. If all the klowns stay in against him, they each take less than that. But if a few more drop out, like Scotty invited, then the remaining votes coalesce around people who can beat Trump.
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There is some data indicating that a lot of Trump people “have never voted before” (or seldom vote).
In 2009 many thought the “Tea Party” consisted of people coming from both the Democratic and Republican voter pool.
Later, it was shown that, notwithstanding all the “populism” rhetoric used by talking heads describing TeaBaggers, the Tea People were, essentially, just more amped-up and Reactionary Republican voters.
Although this “seldom voted before” business seems to float around when talking about Trump people I suspect that the Tea Party and the Trump people have Venn Diagrams which copiously overlap…And, in 2012, “Myth” Romney got enough TeaBagg support to make so as to make Mr. Obama’s victory one in which there was uncertainty for a good bit of Election Night.
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Even with the Tea Party support in 2012 Romney lost by a good margin. This year the Republican base has really announced they don’t like any of the establishment candidates. They are insisting on somebody who is an outsider like Trump, Carson or Forina. None of the outsiders can win the nomination. How will the Tea Party voters react when they are asked to vote for another establishment candidate. I bet a lot of them stay home.
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That is wholly dependent on who drops out and which candidate they get behind. If Graham, Santorum, Pataki, Gilmore, and Jindal exit, it’s not going to be enough % of the vote to matter and their voters are likely to spread their vote around. The establishment needs a couple of it’s candidates in the top 10 to drop out for it to make any real difference.
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And Hillary waltzes into the White House, just as God intended.
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