Here’s to hoping we are looking at another 2006…(without the Blue-dogs and Lieberman)
the idea that repiblicons would be winning any state but those totally red is a further example of the democrats’ inability to mount a strong progressive campaign…and most likely intentionally.
in florida we see active co-operation between the two parties to hinder any progressive running and that is going on across the country.
throw in the REAL story of elections in this country…that being that they are FAKE and it is easy to see why the democrats never win enough to take control.
This is the situation that really has me trimming my fingernails with my teeth. If we can take control of the Senate, that means that we can finally put a stop to Trump stacking the courts (although probably too late to stop Kavanaugh). It is hard for me to think like people who continue to support their conservative Republican representatives, who really only represent the degree of their hatred and ignorance, often while proposing and passing legislation that actually harms their consituents (except that their real constituents are just the 1%). And with that limitation, I simply cannot anticipate the outcome since I am limited to the worlds of thought and reason, which probably won’t be the ground on which the race will be decided.
President Trump remains an a
cessin thehole rather than an albatross for Republicans
There fixed it for you
You hit the nail on the head with the real constituents being the 1%… unfortunately here I think it is preaching to the choir (which I am sure you know)… getting this message out to the red states is likely impossible
“in florida we see active co-operation between the two parties to hinder any progressive running”
Interesting allegation. Got any facts to back that up? names, dates, places, news sources, links, etc?
Work like crazy.
Fight like hell.
Vote Democrat. And get your friends and family to vote Democrat.
(If they’re going to vote Republican, tie them up for a day or two.)
I’m going to play the optimist here — stick with me to the end, and then bash me if you want.
We have some amazing Senate candidates this year, and as I look at the map, I see a real opportunity to take control of the senate. Nevada is turning bluer by the hour ( and most Nevadans think Heller is a spineless twerp), Breedesen in Tennessee is looking pretty good against Blackburn, and Krysten Synema had a real shot In Arizona. Not to mention Beto O’Rourke in Texas (I would LOVE to see Cruz taken out). Add to that, I think McCaskill, Tester, Manchin and Heitkamp will survive. These four incumbents are smart and have good survival instincts. I’m willing to give them some room to maneuver in terms of working with Trump as long as they show up for the big fights.
Florida will likely go to Scott (grumble) and Indiana will probably go in the R column.
Trump’s Tarriffs will hit everyone right around the midterms — especially the farmers. There is only so much those folks can take, and I think they’ll reach their breaking point around mid-October.
There’s still 100 days of Donnie disasters left to help increase the height and power of the coming blue wave.
GOTV
Yesterday on one of the talking heads show, a pollster said that most Americans aren’t following the Russian investigation and that it seems to be too complicated for them. I guess that shouldn’t be too surprising, but I was surprised. But clearly, we need to focus on health care and wages (which went up by an average of 0.8 percent annually, after inflation, during the Obama era but have basically flatlined [0.3 percent] under the Dotard).
I tend to agree with that prediction. Rick Scott has certainly played his cards right, and Nelson has been anything but dynamic. Why isn’t the national party poured more money into that race? Surely they haven’t written it off. Donnelly’s election six years ago was a fluke in the first place, so I can’t be very optimistic that he will survive.
I think that’s true, but I also think some information breaks through every time there’s an arrest or guilty plea. I think it makes people say, “hmmm, there might be something to all this,” especially after his behavior in Helsinki. It adds to their suspicions. But I agree that it really shouldn’t be the focus of Democratic campaigns. It should be part of a list of reasons why it’s so important for Democrats to take back Congress.
The only thing that might save Nelson’s bacon is the influx of Puerto Ricans who have settled in Florida Post-Maria. They’re furious, and they will crawl over broken glass to vote.
The scary thing is that Scott has made massive efforts to reach out to them, and with some success from what I have read.
I think the Dems will win the Senate. They’ll win a net gain of 3 seats and possibly 4.
I don’t think the GOP will win a single incumbent Democratic held seat. The GOP can pretty much forget about WV, WI, PA, OH, MT.
The Dems have a candidate quality and issue priority edge in both MO and IN. Claire McCaskill and Joe Donnelly are well liked among independent voters and the issues this year, pre-existing conditions/protecting the ACA, protecting entitlements, checking Trump, swing in the Democrats’ favor. Those are existential issues. The immigration issue that Trump/GOP project is an imaginary one in a relative comparison sense.
In Florida, I think Bill Nelson is in much better shape than he is being given credit for. A sitting 2 term governor with unlimited money vs an incumbent Senator was always going to be a close race. The race is pretty much a narrow one, which is what one would expect. However, in quality polling, Nelson has a slight lead on the average (around 2 points). That’s probably where this race ends up. Nelson has survived the onslaught of Scott money, and as the state is flooded with ads for several races, Scott’s ads will have a diminishing utility post FL primary. In addition, I think Nelson has done a good job over the last month of highlighting Scott’s play to play corruption schemes and his mismanagement of issues like the environment to cast doubt on the quality of his leadership. Moreover, the issues cut in favor of the Democrats this year, and the Dems have their best chance in years to win the Governors race and win a few seats in the House. That will lead to increased Democratic turnout and in FL little surges can lift a lot of boats.
As for Heitkamp in ND, she benefits from having Trump in the WH. Pre-existing conditions/ACA + tariffs + entitlements are her go to issues and those have won big for Dems in the past. She is in a much better spot to win re-election than she would have had Hillary been elected President.
On the other side, I do think Jacky Rosen, Kyrsten Sinema and Phil Bredesen have advantages and should win in this environment (at least 2 of the 3, though Marsha Blackburn is so unlikeable and Bredesen so likable that I’m inclined to think the Dems will win all 3). Jacky Rosen is getting the latino turnout and the indie swings she needs to beat Heller. While I expect Heller to run strong with Republicans as he is a good campaigner, I think his votes will catch up to him among Indies and he won’t survive this time after somehow winning a lot of prior races. The same issues that help Dems nationally work in NV. NV also has a very active governor’s race and state office/leg races in which they are favored. I don’t see a lot of ticket splitters this year with health care on the line. Sinema in AZ is in probably the most fundamentally sound position as the GOP field is weak, Maricopa County is tilting blue and she has the moderate/indie credentials to win over swing voters.
The outside shot is Texas. Beto O’Rourke is running a much better campaign than Cruz. I think even GOP observers would say that. Ultimately, the GOP is relying on the average 1 mill vote margin of victory for Senate GOP candidates in TX (since '00) to carry them through. I have been in that camp for a while, but I’m less so now.
For one, in almost any other state (even red states), Beto would be given a slightly better than 50% chance to win just based on the quality of his campaign. It’s a legit populist campaign. By populist, I mean a campaign that crosses a threshold where voters look at the candidate not from a political party lens but from a threshold of acceptability. It’s that quality that allows say a GOPer to win in blue state or a Dem to win in a GOP state where victory can’t happen without some acquiescence or even support from the dominant party voting bloc. For example, when Chris Christie won his first term as governor, people in NJ thought of Christie as different than the average GOPer. People went beyond the party label and thought that he might be worth trusting to get some things done because ‘his decision making will be more utilitarian and policy based than party/ideology base and I might be able to deal with that even though he comes from a different perspective because I hate Jon Corzine and the current gov’t in NJ is corrupt.’ Heitkamp, Donnelly, Manchin et al got similar assessments from their state’s electorates based on other factors that are important to those electorates.
I think Beto has crossed that threshold. Now all Cruz has to hold Beto off is the traditional R lean of the state and that 1 mill vote margin. So while Cruz is still favored, his position is not solid.
Here’s the thing, though. In TX, some swings in key, vote rich demos can shift the projected vote rapidly. If Latinos swing to Beto by a 70-30 margin or better, he gets a lot closer. If he gets up to 33% of the white vote, he makes this a toss up race. If that all comes together with a turnout differential where Dems vote at general election levels and GOP at traditional midterm levels with an indie swing to Beto, now we’re in Doug Jones/Alabama territory.
Democrats haven’t had a well funded TX campaign in decades. We have them now in Beto’s race plus several House races. The chances that this race gets closer by Election Day are higher than it going in the opposite direction.
The outside/outside chance is one of the MS Senate seats, but I don’t know enough yet to say anything about it.
Democrat-IC, please! Don’t let that repug insult take hold.
Turnout is everything. VOTE! As I wrote before, take your family, take your friends, take your neighbors, take your dogs. VOTE!
That may be a bad assumption:
There also seems to be an influx of Puerto Ricans that have settled for work in Branson, MO. It’s in the southwest corner of the state which is traditionally ruby red. It would be nice to see some purple spreading out down there.