I think litho’s comment stands and it true on its face.
Surely it is incontrovertible that Bernie has made an “imact on the race” and more is said as he is in fact leading in NH. ( I agree it is not representative of the country ,i hope not, I live here) …
Win or lose its good for the party.
No need to be so dismissive, it’s a race, sure Hillary has advantages, and so does Bernie. Dismissing him doesn’t make him go a away…
Your headline misrepresents or at least does not accurately represent what Dean said. Please get your hed on straight!
I am not dismissing Sanders in hopes he goes away. I am dismissing the implied notion that leading in NH because it holds the first primary is some sort of magic combination that shows his awesomeness.
Sanders is leading in NH because of geography, and the fact that NH has a bit of a quirky electorate. Now, it can be said that every state has its own nuances, but he isn’t just behind in the polls everywhere else, he is way behind in the polls everywhere else.
I can just as easily, and more pointedly, say that dismissing Hillary just because she has solid double digits leads in 49 states doesn’t make her go away.
The “Bernie is leading NH because geography(or VTs proximity)” is hardly justifiable. NH shares its media market with Mass. much more so than VT, and parts in VTs media market amount to a very small percentage of its residents.
As far as his poll position in other states, there is very little polling outside Iowa and NH and where there has been polling, it has been sporadic and most polls taken are older than the Bernie boomlet. Frankly they amount to a measure of name recognition only. Moreover, IA and NH are the only places in which the candidates have actually campaigned and run advertisements. (BTW, being in NH, I’ve seen no Bernie commercials, but many Hillary…) So, for now they are the only polls that mean anything.
I’ll concede Bernie’s NH polling does not mean everything… I’m merely contending it means something. And that something should not be ignored or dismissed. Certainly I didn’t see any Hillary supporters dismiss NH after she won there in '08.
Pointing out that Hillary is ahead isn’t going to win the primary for her, she needs to earn it. The primary will also better prepare the eventual winner and make them stronger.
Frankly all the dismissing of Bernie shows more that Hillary supporters are afraid of the competition. Nobody wastes their time dismissing Chaffee or O’Malley, because they aren’t a threat.
So, by all means advocate for your chosen candidate. But dismissing another candidate of strength is so 2007…
Its a whole lot easier for people who have been supporting Sanders as Senator to trek over to NH and work on his campaign than it is to fly to Iowa. So yeah, geography matters in this case.
That’s about as dismissive as you can get. It’s also true. Likewise, its also true that Sanders is losing in every other state, including Iowa, by double digits.
Take a look at the PPP poll out today from SC.
Clinton is at 54%, Biden at 24% and Sanders is at 9%. He is trailing Biden, who isn’t even in the race or campaigning, by more than 2x.
Pay particular attention to this tidbit,
“This is the worst performance we’ve found for Sanders anywhere in quite a long time, but it speaks to his continued difficulty with African American voters. He gets only 3% with them- well behind Clinton’s 59% and Biden’s 27%- and in a state where a majority of Democratic voters are black that makes it hard for him to do very well”
If and when Sanders is polling competitively in the majority of the states, I will start discussing him as a candidate with a realistic chance of becoming the nominee. But he isn’t that today. And quite frankly, he has some very serious hills to climb within the party’s electorate to get there. I am sorry if you feel the polls don’t support the notion that Sanders will win, but they don’t. They aren’t even close.
All true enough, it’s the definitives like “he won’t win” that give the impression that Hillary folks are real out out by having to compete for the nomination.
Standing in the first in the nation primary is news and is worthy of discussion, not a media contrived narrative. It shows Hillary’s standing in the state that saved/prolonged her previous candidacy is less than it once was. Wondering aloud if it is the canary in the proverbial coal mine is valid.
Leading in NH while being behind everywhere else in the nation, and “wondering aloud” if its the canary in the coal mine is most definitely a media contrived narrative. If Sanders were within say 5-8 points of her everywhere else, showing a steady gain over the past weeks/months…then you have something worth pondering.
But you don’t. You have Clinton holding healthy leads in every state but NH by double digits. (SC’s poll today is crushing, and probably pretty indicative of rest of the Deep South, aka GA, AL, MS, LA, AR).
I mean, consider this…there is not a single article on TPM about the SC poll. Its incredibly good news for the Clinton campaign, and dismal news for the Sanders campaign. It could even be fit into the “Biden is definitely running” narrative. But, right now good news for the Clinton campaign is blacked out. Why? Perhaps because it conflicts with the “canary in the coal mine” narrative? Which, combined with the actual news, is a pretty good indicator, that it is indeed just a media contrived narrative.
First I want to note that i appreciate the cordial discussion… 
I don’t think there is enough other polling (certainly not recent)to actually measure the rest of the primary electorate. I’ll concede the SC poll sounds bad for Bernie. (i l haven’t read it, or know who conducted it) but it is one poll from SC, but not yet a trend,by definition. It may be valid and tell us a lot, but it’s the only recent poll.
I’d contend SC is as unrepresentative of the rest of the country as NH, though more diverse. It’s also not a swing state and it’s a southern state and not one either would spend a dime on in the general.
So we’re left with the media…ugh… I hear you. Bernie, when first starting to rise was dismissed as wacko etc… It cuts both ways and one will see it more clearly when it cuts against your preferred candidate. In 08 the media went both ways with Obama too. But anybody that is up they are happy to tear down. Rest assured if Bernie gains more traction they will be there to tear him down too. 
Competition, even with an assist from media breeds excitement, this is needed, so the media is doing the party a favor.
SC is fairly representative of the Deep South, however…though perhaps redder. What happens in SC is usually not too far off from what happens in AL, MS and LA…GA also, though GA usually has a much bluer tint thanks to Atlanta. Right now, I would say its probably a pretty decent barometer for Arkansas as well, at least for the Democratic primaries.
Bottom line demographically for Sanders is, he has to shore up his support among Blacks.
All together, that’s a lot of delegates. And, as reported last week, those are places that the Clinton campaign is already moving.
Here is an article that makes good points that stand as is or replaced with Hillary instead of bernie (adjusting for context).
It’s relevant regarding media infuence.
Cheers.
I think you forgot the link
Classic… I forget to attach docs to emails all the time.
Meh…I like think progress as a notion, but they over sell their positions far too often. This is basically a fluff pop psychology piece, in my opinion.
And you missed your mark. Here is the article you wanted to link to me this morning after yesterday’s conversation:
Latest Quinnipiac poll has Sanders leading Clinton in Iowa.
Indeed…
I’ll concede though, it’s but one poll, and not yet a trend.
I have also been sceptical of Q-pac this year as their party weighting for General election matchups has been wacky (like 50/50, repub/dem, which is never what a General election electorate looks like) as though they are buying into the “unskew the polls” BS.
However given this poll is only Dems this may not be a factor here.
Now that we are after labor day, if imagine we will start to have a lot more data to pour over. This will help to better understand the current state of the primary as opposed to name recognition.
Cheers…
In light of today’s YouGov poll, feel like revising your comments? Sanders is now up 22 in NH and 10 in IA…
And he’s making a serious play for black votes in SC.
Not really. YouGov is given to extremes and not a polling group I place a lot of confidence. But I will concede that it does seem he is making a move upwards versus Hillary at the moment. A 28 point jump in less than a week though?
The movements YouGov shows, and its a bit of a track record with them, are just so huge and out of whack with every other polling group, that its hard to believe them.
Their methodology raises a few eyebrows too. Its all online only internet surveys, in which they invite people to be part of “focus groups”…offering up rewards for participating.
They’re not the most reliable polling outfit, but while their numbers go well beyond what other polls have shown they also appear to demonstrate a solid emerging pattern. You didn’t believe it when it was three reputable polls out of NH and slight movement in IA, and you don’t seem to believe it now that the trend appears to be firming up. Let’s talk again after the IA caucuses, ok? Cause right now you and me both is just speculating.
No, I did concede that Sanders is moving upwards against Hilary. I just don’t believe there was a 28 point jump over the weekend, when no news about either campaign was released.