It was the Republican convention that started the bump, the Democratic convention just continued it.
That’s the second poll with Clinton over 50%. Hopefully the bump doesn’t fall too much, and she can stay at 48-52.
It’s not altogether certain that it will. There hasn’t been as thoroughly a deranged candidate as Drumpf bestride the stage in the modern era, perhaps ever. Each day brings more madness and we have nearly 100 more. By Labor Day the race will be jelled (barring the unforeseen), IMHO.
After all this, 42% of the electorate thinks that Trump would be an OK pick for POTUS? Really? REALLY?
Every election comes down to turnout, polls be damned.
The more Trump spouts, the more likely we galvanize the coalition to keep him out of power.
The more hate he spews, the more Independents will vote against him.
The more make it up as he goes along non-conservative BS he vomits forth, the less likely sane Republicans will be to turn out to vote.
The more Hillary speaks, the more likely Democrats and Independents come out to vote for her.
There’s a reason why Honey Boo Boo, Breaking Amish and the rest of those “Reality TV” shows are so popular.
The biggest danger is that Democrats feel too confident about Hillary’s comfortable lead and decide they don’t have to vote because she has it in the bag. Trump supporters will vote and drag everyone they can to vote with them for Trump. I prefer to see it more even so Democrats are too scared of a Trump white House to stay home. I wouldn’t feel too sure the Republicans who say they will vote for Hillary actually will when the day comes.
Here is a whole batch of national polls and a graph showing Hillary’s rise and Trump’s “dead cat bump”.
Very nice to see a positive Clinton story for a change on TPM.
Nate Silver’s prediction’s kinda nice too:
That’s what gets me. I don’t think I’ve seen such a lack luster bump out of a major candidate following their convention in my life. Certainly Hillary didn’t do as strongly as Bill (13pts), but she got a respectable bounce while Donald got two…three? It wasn’t much.
I have an image of Trump’s “bounce”. Now, understand …I’m an animal lover.
But I thought this appropriate.
Here is something I find striking about Trump’s “base”.
During the primaries the group of Republican voters most suspicious of Trump were the Evangelicals. But now they have lined up to be his most dogged supporters, with 94% saying they will vote for Trump. These Evangelicals were the source of nearly half of the votes that Romney got.
The Evangelicals earlier negative attitude toward Trump is understandable, as he has been running on the platform of being a Pharisee (in the modern sense). But now they are all in for the Pharisee.
My own grandmother, who was a member of this community being a rural South Carolina Southern Baptist, nonetheless took a dim view of her co-religionists. Something she liked to say about the members of her church was that there was “plenty of religion, but not much Christianity”.
This sums up the Evangelicals pretty thoroughly.
It looks like Hillary Clinton’s convention bounce is the largest since 2000, i.e. the largest out of the last 8 conventions, which is probably the most revealing standard since convention bounces have faded in the recent hyper-polarized climate.
Turn out, Turn out, Turn out. Democrats need to go to the polls in HUGE numbers. A landslide victory will ensure a victory for Hillary and at the same time trounce this GOP nonsense into the ground.
The best moments from our convention (click the tweet for the embedded video) that gives us this bump, which is arguably large considering today’s deep partisan divide.
We are in a strong position now, but we must keep it going till Nov not just to win, but destroy Trump. The guy needs to suffer a crushing defeat. Donate time and/or money, and GOTV!
Anything over 50% for HRC should translate “landslide” because the third plus fourth party candidates would likely have 10+ leaving less than 40 for Trump.
The state polls after Labor Day will be most important. If the toss up status of states like Georgia and MO hold up, this should be an EV landslide as well as popular vote one.
Gallup poll yesterday showed only 35% of voters said Trump RNC speech made them more likely to vote Trump while 51% said less likely. It had never measured such a big minus gap for a party’s nominee’s convention speech before. (Hillary’s poll number same poll was in double digit plus territory if I recall)
I have the feeling this will last. After all, if there is a bump, it’s because people actually saw her, her vision of America and her vision for America in that magnificent convention, and it would hard to detract from her after that.
Will the convention bump be enough the dump Trump, diddly Drumph?
I’m pretty confident secondary candidates are not going to get 10%.
Non–Dem and -GOP votes totaled less than 2% in 2012, less than 1.6% in 2008, 1.1% in 2004, and even in 2000 with Nader so vocal the total was 3.75%.
Even with Ross Perot on the ballot in 1996 the non-major party vote was 10.05%.