Discussion for article #246555
Go Hillary! Crush them!
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Today, the center holds!
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She got a bump from NV. A big win today would give her another bump I think. The latest polling for Super Tuesday states showed her pulling ahead in Massachusetts and way ahead in most of the other states that have been polled. Bernie is ahead big in VT of course and there is no polling from CO and Minnesota.
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Sen Sanders’ week:
Massachusetts Monday night
Virginia Tuesday morning
South Carolina Tuesday night (televised townhall)
Wednesday in Kansas City, MO and Tulsa, OK.
Ohio on Thursday.
Minnesota on Friday
Is this correct?
The revolution hedges and concedes heavily-black Democratic demographics?
These optics are not kind to the Senator.
jw1
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I dunno, I can’t say I really blame him on this one. HRC is up possibly 30 points or better (polls are scattered) in SC, and he really, really needs to do well in at least a few Super Tuesday states to stay alive.
Pundits keep claiming there’s a long way to go. No, there really isn’t. With just a two person field the nomination fight will most likely be over in the next two weeks or so. It’s really not a concession of the black vote in general, but a concession of South Carolina.
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He has even moved on to campaigning in States like Kansas and Missouri. He’s looking for delegates anywhere he can find them.
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I agree with both @jw1 and @PluckyInKY on this one. I think the optics aren’t great for Sanders, because it heavily reinforces the pre-existing notion that his candidacy is for White people. I also can’t blame Sanders for making a pragmatic choice about where to allocate scare resources (like time) and try and stay in the race. I don’t think that Sanders doesn’t value Black votes, or think White votes are better, he just wants votes period.
But yeah, still not great optics to say that we can compete everywhere, my message will win a national election, and then stop campaigning for the perhaps single most important Democratic Party constituency.
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And PinKY, it was my backhanded way of stating same.
If Sen Sanders’ campaign was looking to gear up for the long-haul–
it wouldn’t be bypassing SC-- to shore up the hardly-more-probable Super Tuesday states.
More extensive exposure in SC within that heavily-black demo–
might-- might have given some positive PR to woo AA voters in other elections later on.
That he did not is a big ‘tell’.
That the primary season is now perceived as a short-game by the Sanders camp.
jw1
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The most recent poll from Minnesota was in January and it had HRC ahead there by 20+ points. I’ m guessing it’s a whole lot closer there now either way. If Bernie comes away from Super Tuesday with wins in VT and maybe CO only,HRC will get a huge bump going into the next round of states I think. Coming out of NH,the polling had him ahead in Massachusetts and real close in Oklahoma. HRC got good bumps there coming out of NV. Today could be the clincher.
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Turnout is expected to be at record lows because all the polls have predicted a landslide for Clinton which I find very bothersome. People should show support for their candidate regardless. It’s like people have let the TV decide the outcome for them, very unhealthy for our democracy.
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She’s the most qualified candidate ever. Now, to get the Dems out to the polls in November.
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Can’t speak for the rest, but KCMO is more diverse and younger than the nation at large. Sen. Sanders was well-received at Bartle Hall.
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I think momentum is building for both Hillary and Trump. After this week, it could virtually be over on both sides, although I’d love to see Trump snipe at Rubio and Cruz for another few weeks/months.
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Big big win, Hillary - we all need it.
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Ah @jw1 I see what you mean. It’s a not do subtle acknowledgement that Super Tuesday is do or die. And it is do or die.
@bdtex I agree that a big win in SC could lead to a big bump for Clinton on Tuesday, especially since it will dominate political news. There’s nothing going on in the GOP race until Tuesday, so she should have the next few days of news all to herself.
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And Florida,Illinois, Ohio and North Carolina are all on the same day as Missouri. Right now,she has commanding leads in those 4 States. March 15 is not setting up very well for Bernie so far. That could change of course with 3-4 wins on Super Tuesday.
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True, but if Sanders only picks up CO, MN, and VT (his home state where he’s killing HRC, obviously), I still think it’s pretty much game over.
That said, I don’t think big losses on Super Tuesday and on the 15th will mean he has to exit the race even though the race will be over. He will, however, have to completely change his tone and rhetoric toward Clinton. If he does that, if he kind of shepards his voters to Clinton and stresses the importance of voting Democratic in the general, he’ll maybe earn himself a spot in her cabinet. He’ll certainly earn back the respect many folks have lost.
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Pretty much everyone assumes Hillary will come out of Super Tuesday with a good-sized lead among pledged (elected) delegates. Mathematically, that lead won’t be insurmountable, as none of the Democratic primaries are winner-takes-all, and the delegate apportionment is pretty generous to the second-place candidate (which worked to Hillary’s benefit in New Hampshire, and to Bernie’s benefit in Nevada).
Bernie’s best bet is to win 4-5 states on Super Tuesday – his best chances being Massachusetts, Colorado, Minnesota, Oklahoma and, of course Vermont – and then go on to have a stronger showing later in March. People here are obviously going to have different views on the probability of that happening, My own view is that those chances are small, but not insignificant.
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