And even if you got 67, it would be questioned, probably litigated whether it was 67 true votes for guilty and removal. DT and team would fight to ignore the vote, it’s not the true will of the people, that kind of thing. Probably better to have 75 or more, with more than half the R’s voting for removal.
Remember, Nixon had vowed to fight/ignore the Supreme Court if it was a 5-4 or even 6-3 ruling that he turn over the tapes. I would guess we’ll see something similar unless it’s an overwhelming vote this time around.
Maybe, but I envision Trump incapable of an admission of failure, which a resignation would represent. If there were criminal charges awaiting him once he was a private citizen I suppose he might negotiate a pardon as a condition of his resignation. Lacking that assurance I think he’d fight leaving until the bitter end.
Naming Trump as an un-indicted co-conspirator is functionally a deferred indictment. It effectively means he leaves the WH in handcuffs if he doesn’t cut a deal or get a pardon from Pence. If Dems win control of Congress, I think many would rather let him serve out his term, beat GOP ass in 2020 and take him out in handcuffs. Trump is weak. His leverage has diminished tremendously. The end is closer than we think. As a former student of comparative politics, this regime fits the model of other corrupt regimes which fall.
The handcuffs can’t be employed until he’s out of office. He has a stranglehold on the party. His loyalists register approval ratings in the 90’s no matter what boneheaded stunt he pulls. He’d be a shoe-in for the nomination in 2020, and all bets are off who’d be the winner of the election. This freakishly obtuse electorate is liable to do anything, including reelecting Trump. Then he essentially has the OLC version of diplomatic immunity for another 4 years.
Imagine a world in which Democrats control Congress, Mueller has indicted several more people including associates of Trump and even family members, where the conspiracy is almost fully exposed yet Trump is still President, but is a septuagenarian with piss poor approval ratings who is deeply unpopular relative to generic Republicans in every part of the country. That scenario has a somewhat higher chance of happening than not at this point based on available evidence. That scenario means he is more likely to go to jail than to win re-election. Political gravity applies to all. Trump is also a notorious quitter. 4 bankruptcies, 4 marriages, many broken contracts. The only reason he hasn’t quit yet is because the GOP Congress won’t push back. If he feels a real threat of jail, he’ll find a way to negotiate a deal.
Look at the geography. Annexation of Montenegro is an impossibility unless you think Russia plans to annex all of the former Yugoslavia, a feat they did not manage even during the USSR days, (yes, Yugoslavia was communist but Tito was notoriously independent of the Soviets).
Maybe I’m crazy, but I’ve kinda convinced myself that, at some point, the Secret Service would intervene to see that the rules are obeyed. That is to say that, in the event of successful impeachment and removal votes, they would tell him to pack his bags and vacate the White House. After all, the Secret Service, like all government employees, swear an oath to the Constitution, not to the President.
Bizarrely, the outcome of the Mueller investigation may be a less relevant factor than the above because Trump is already clearly guilty of impeachable offenses just on the information that’s publicly available to date, and because under the current set of circumstances, the GOP (both voters and officeholders) would probably find a way to rationalize even the most nightmarish Tom Clancy/James Bond revelations. So really, then, it all comes down to factors (a) and (b) above.