Great launch for Harris. She has definitely elevated herself into a top tier candidate, which is a big accomplishment for someone who isn’t as well known as other potential candidates. One other thing is that I believe Harris has a shot at a much bigger coalition than either Obama, Bill Clinton or Hillary Clinton had in their primary runs to the nominations. There really is no voter group that is closed off to her. I can see her getting a healthy percentage of support across just about any demographic that makes up the primary electorate.
If she were to win the CA primary with 55% or 60% of the vote, she’d net somewhere between 220 and 250 pledged delegates and probably a big margin over the next highest finisher in a split field. If she also wins 1 or 2 of the first 4 contests, this will make her pretty tough to beat.
The one challenge I think she has is to address the health care issue more clearly. Her polling tells her to lead with an embrace of M4A, but she has to also deal with the cost and viability issues and needs to settle in on Medi Buy in as a first step. She has hinted at this, as has Warren (and even Bernie) but it’s not clear as yet. She has time to refine that position and sell the m4a crowd on the idea that she is both committed to the goal while assuring the more pro ACA 2.0 crowd (which I’m in) that she’ll take a pragmatic approach to getting there.
I don’t think it will be that hard to do, and it’s more of an issue for the general election than the primaries as so many of the candidates are so rhetorically close to one another.
Best be careful out there in Stalinist Socialist Paradise Hollywood, Comrade Kamala! A-list celebrity and rectal thespian James Woods might send you another nasty Tweet, which may leave a fragile little lady like you in a puddle of tears!
I’m beginning to like a Harris / O’Rourke ticket. No where near deciding for sure, but I like thinking about this one.
I do think Beto is going to run. Obama folks are waiting in the wings to line up behind him. He will shake up the race even further, but I think the two that will shake this race up the most are Klobuchar and Brown. If all 3 enter this race, I will be very satisfied with the field.
Saw Woods on an old Johnny Carson episode recently. Probably 80s. He was creepy even then, especially talking about being newly married and exposing himself as a complete control freak.
I’d be interested in why the Obama folks (and what do you mean by folks? Operatives or voters? Or both?) are so behind Beto? Not that I mind, just curious.
I’m referring to operatives. Axelrod, and that pod save America crew (basically, all the white dudes not named Bill Burton who worked for Obama) are all caping for Beto. Obama apparently sees a lot of himself in Beto (he buys the comparison it would appear).
The Beto-Harris battle would be a re-run of the Obama-Clinton campaign in ‘08. Clinton always knocked Obama for the Kumbaya rhetoric of ‘unity’ and ‘working together’ or that Republicans are agreeable. Beto sort of embodies that at times. Harris’ campaign is essentially a HRC message delivered by someone with the personal appeal and political talents of someone like Obama. The Beto message is an Obama message delivered through a white male who also has strong political skills. Could be quite a battle. Where I think both would kill Trump is on immigration and border security. Then again, I could see Klobchar or Brown emerge as the pragmatic, midwestern choice that people may gravitate to.
Bull’sEye @khyber900
My guess is that Harris will show up in IA and NH for the national cameras, but not overcommit and use up valuable resources for a low-payoff - in delegates - effort. She’ll then look to pile up delegates Super Tuesday (March 3, 2020: Alabama, California, Massachusetts, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, and Virginia)
CA, VA, MA, NC are the big prizes and if she can a) gather more money from donors big and small, and b) win 35-45 % of delegates in those 4 states (perhaps with the mega-payout in CA you mention), she’ll be nearly unbeatable and the field will narrow to Harris, Warren, Bernie, and 1-2 smaller holdouts.
It hurts my soul (well…maybe not that much) that I used to like James Woods as an actor. It’s like he has taken his role as Hades in the Disney film HERCULES a little too literally.
My dream ticket would be Harris/Klobuchar or Klobuchar/Harris. Both women have complementary strengths that balance each other’s deficiencies beautifully.
Mine is Harris/Brown or Brown/Harris.
Yes, Harris, Klobuchar, Brown and Beto are in my Top 5. If all 3 get into the race i will be super happy with how it shapes up. I know the down side to Brown being a lost Senate seat and that’s my bigged quibble with him going the distance.
His telling of that day in his life where he saw the 9/11 rehearsal on the plane was pretty incredible though.
The only thing I don’t like about Brown being on a ticket is the loss of his Senate seat in OH.
I don’t see either one being willing to act as the #2 on a ticket. Both of these folks (Kamala and Beto) strike me as people who have ambitions to be President. It will be interesting to see what happens. Regardless, the Dems have a remarkable number of capable candidates this year.
I don’t see any of them so far wanting to settle for VP.
That’s a biggie.
It will be really interesting to see how the field whittles down by the time of the Democratic convention. As noted, there seems to be a remarkable number of good-to-strong candidates this time around.
It’s too cold here for my brain to work, but I believe that the first runner-up rarely becomes the VP candidate.