It will be VERY interesting to see what the geographers have to say about it after they run it through their test programs.
The Repubs are relentless in their corruption.
It has been ever so since at least Nixon.
Trying to figure out how much of an effect it will have on House seats. I compared the proposed map with one I found by outlining he counties with a higher number of registered democrats than republicans.
Might lose PA’s17th and gain the 3rd. If Dems turn out in the west it could put 12 and 18 in play. Pretty sure we pick up 7 and 8 in the south east. 6 could be a real possibility too. Best case scenerio +5 seats?
This article is failing to mention the related story that the PA Republicans are threatening to impeach all 5 of the PA State Supreme Court justices who voted against their original gerrymandered map and they have enough of a majority in the legislature to do it. Keep in mind, the new map may not have been drawn up fairly on purpose, so they have an excuse to impeach those judges that won’t let them cheat and steal their hold on power.
Senate President Pro Tempore Joe Scarnati and House Speaker Mike Turzai – the top two Republicans in the state – also said they aren’t backing down.
“We still do not believe that there was a violation of the state Constitution, that the Pennsylvania Supreme Court can direct us to draw a new congressional map, or that the Pennsylvania Supreme Court has the authority to draw a new Congressional District Map under the Pennsylvania Constitution or United States Constitution,” the two said in a joint statement.
They said they will “do our best” to comply with the state Supreme Court’s order to redraw the congressional map, "but may be compelled to pursue further legal action in federal court."
So… the GOPers drew a severely gerrymandered map, it was deemed unconstitutional, and now the same GOPers get to propose a new map? Somehow I don’t see the logic of why anyone should trust this one. It seems the best solution would have been to form an independent commission (made up of Rs and Ds) to propose a new map. Isn’t that what happened in California?
I think that’s out of reach from redistricting alone. The Dem voters are just too concentrated.
If the GOP was in our position in PA, they’d have Pitt and Phil voters approve measures that would divide each city into multiple cities, so some of the excess voters of their party could more easily be made part of other House districts.
PA law says that the legislature draws the map. [California voters approved a proposition in 2010 to put redistricting in the hands of a citizens redistricting commission.][1]
Dems will still be disadvantaged by most party-blind redistricting processes, because most such processes aim for compact districts and respect for existing political boundaries (city limits, etc.). The end result will almost always include urban districts with very high majorities of Dem voters.
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Proposition_20_(2010)
Edited to add: Should the courts ever decide to put weight on the “efficiency gap” (aka “wasted votes”) analyses of districts, the Dems might fare a little better. I think that is a long-term prospect at best, especially if the GOP retains the majority in the Senate in 2018 and is able to confirm Trump judges for another 2 years. I can see judges viewing the efficiency gap as evidence of unfair redistricting, but that is still a big step away from determining that the Constitution demands a minimization of the gap.
Gov. Wolf has hired Tufts mathematician, Moon Duchin to help him evaluate the new map. I’m sure it won’t be accepted without changes.
That is actually the theory put forward in the Wisconsin case already argued before the SCOTUS, so if they decide in plaintiff’s favor we could see that principle applied as early as this Spring.
In this case, the republicans in the legislature refused to do the usual legislative map-drawing thing and just submitted a map drawn by GOP leadership and their consultants. (Yeah, they claim they’ll go back to pass a bill if the governor approves this map, but that’s really not the way such things usually work.)
They’re already in contempt, so further irregularities wouldn’t seem like a good idea.
I don’t think it’s too much of a stretch. My map is pretty hard to read, but here’s just the counties by voter registration as of 2016 (from my link in my first comment)
I think the proposed GOP map gives us at least 12 and 3 in the west. 14 was already blue. 18 is the special election that will happen under the old map and then rerun in Nov. If we should take that now, I would think odds would be even better that we keep it.
The most ridiculous gerrymandering was in the south east. Republicans can kiss 7 goodbye. 8 should be blue too, and 6 is no gimme. Put that together with folks like Meehan (PA7) abandoning their seats… I’m gonna stick with plus 5 in November.
I’m gonna disagree and hope to hell I enjoy a giant meal of crow in November. Make me wrong, PA.
Yeah, I posted that (from another source) a few days ago. They do anything and everything to have their own way, and if it doesn’t seem to go their way they do anything and everything to retaliate.
And it’s not just PA. I’m re-posting the thread I posted at the same time, below.
Yes, in most of the country, the politicians still get to choose their voters, instead of the other way round.
And irregularities, there are.
I’m trying on my optimist shoes.
This is way, way, way out of my wheelhouse, but would it not be possible to create a computer program that would take redistricting out of human, and therefore partisan, hands? I’m assuming it’s more the will to do so than the actual technical challenge that keeps this from happening.