Oh sure, blame the old folks.
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So I take it, this is the preemptive version of âDonât Blame Meâ.
(Romney, Romney, Romney. This is the sychophantic woman who chose to lose her married hyphenated name, to disavow family ties, in order to please a dictator who literally hates her own uncle.)
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Sorry, but I think weâve all heard âOld Man with Zero-Emmys-Awarded TV show Yells at Cloudsâ plenty of times.
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That was because in Florida year 2000 exit polls correctly predicted how people thought they had voted. But Broward county with its poorly laid out butterfly ballot resulted in 10,000 gore votes going to buchanan. In no other county in the country did buchanan exceed 500. Add those 10,000 votes back to goreâs numbers and exit polls were spot on. Yet the TV talking heads couldnât bring themselves to say it was a mechanically screwed up election, instead they blamed the exit polls. Yes, Iâm still pissed.
ETA: Iâm pretty sure news organizations still use exit polling to make calls, but they donât publicize the exit poll numbers so they donât have to discuss discrepancies (cough, Ohio 2004, cough).
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Hey, Toots, Nate Silver puts it at 80-20 you lose control of the House.
But, hey, keep whistling past the graveyard.
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As well you should be. Weâre still paying dearly for the fact that they got away with it.
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It is begining to look that way for the Senate though.
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GOPâers arenât good with higher math without taking their shoes off.
Sure he didnât mean 50 + 50 seats?
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I think their model, like mine, had the total 3rd party vote falling around 3%-4%. It went up to 6% on e-day and that had a lot to do with Comey, Russia and Wikileaks.
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âAbsolutely weâve had an unprecedented amount of retirements and that has made it harder in some of these swing districts. But right now Iâd say itâs 50-50.â
I hope sheâs asked this again, in late October.
The remark came after The New York Times reported, based on an audio recording of the event, that McDaniel told a roomful of Republican donors and politicians Saturday that âit does cost, right now, more money to engage our voters, to get them knowledge of the election.â
Welll, when there are folks constantly telling them that theyâre winning everything, what are they supposed to think?
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The only poll that matters is the one that takes place on November 6.
And that depends not only on enthusiasm and turnout but also on whether there is interference in the voting process by domestic or foreign powers and voter suppression of minority voters in individual states. The best countermeasure is for everyone to get the hell out and vote to overwhelm any interference.
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If they are saying it is 50/50, they know that it is much worse than that. They want to encourage their base with a tinge of fear, but no so much that they decide it isnât worth bothering.
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âOn the House, we have a lot of seats on the margin,â McDaniel acknowledged to CBSâ Margaret Brennan. âAbsolutely weâve had an unprecedented amount of retirements and that has made it harder in some of these swing districts. But right now Iâd say itâs 50-50.â
While a lot of people say âitâs 50-50â meaning they either could win or they could lose (ie, a meaningless statement), I think this is a gross mischaracterization. Per 538, they have about a 77.6% chance of losing the House. Thatâs a little more than 3 times out of 4 they lose the House.
Lying to their supporters in public is expected. They do that not to change the facts on the ground but rather to keep investors from panicking and, more nefariously, to set things up for a âwe were wronged!â outcry if they end up losing big. Given the history of the GOP over the past 30 years as primarily a party of âwronged victimhoodâ, that set up is exactly what I expect them to be doing right now.
If they are lying to themselves in private, though, they have much lower chances of retaining the House because I assure you Democratic strategists are going into this with eyes wide open and a clear understanding of the potential points of failure in front of them.
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28.6% is not 0%. The 538 model gave him a nearly 1 in 3 chance of winning. Unfortunately, he hit on the nearly 1 in 3.
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âThey have their energy,â McDaniel said of Democrats. âWe have our infrastructure.â
Is that what weâre calling Russian election interference now?
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Itâs amazing how so many people think that if the odds say itâs 70/30 and the underdog wins that the odds makers were wrong. 30% prevails 3 times in 10.
Similarly, Iâve seen countless pundents claim that the LA Times poll that showed Trump up by 4 (+/-) points was the only poll that got it right in 2016. In fact the LA Times poll was one of the least accurate since HRC won the popular vote by 3,000,000 votes.
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You know you contradicted yourself between the beginning of the comment where you acknowledge that
'16 was not a good template and then end up using it anyway.
Well, I mostly donât pay that much attention to polls and I really donât think they have that much affect on voters.
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Yes, but weâre not dealing with the electoral college who appointed Trump to the presidency. The biggest challenge will be gerrymandering and voter supression. Dems need to have around a 7% overall advantage in the polls to overcome the âriggingâ.
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Exactly. Iâm aware of no template that took into account e-mail hacking, Facebook and Twitter propaganda posted by an enemy country, and conspiracy between one campaign and that enemy government. I suspect the maps would have looked much different with those, um, âminorâ corrections. And not to even mention Comeyâs ridiculous decision to blast Hillary again ten days before the election.
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One could think theyâre saying this to energize their base. Itâs also as likely theyâre saying this to take the wind out of the blue tsunami. I donât think the left, progressives and sentient adults are going to be put off by this nonsense.
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