Discussion for article #221240
I don’t think the GOP is gonna do as well in Senate races as they think they are. In fact,I’ve been saying that all year. GOPs are gonna lose 3-5 Governorships and probably some House seats. I believe,worst case scenario for the Senate after 11/4 is 51-49 Dems and I can plausibly envision a scenario where GOPs only gain one Senate seat. I believe GOPs are gonna be furious on 11/5 and the infighting we see now is nothing like what we’re gonna see after 11/4.
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Absolutely! I think Begich, Hagan (I very much think she’s going to benefit from the Moral Monday’s movement), Pryor, and probably Landrieu will hang on by a hair. In the end, I expect this election to be mostly a push in which Democrats walk away largely satisfied while Republicans will be utterly livid that they blew their chance at taking the Senate for at least another 4 years.
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Sounds like Silver will have to update his forecast with this data. I don’t see how the data supports the 30% success prediction Silver gives the incumbent. This data certainly doesn’t bode well for a GOP takeover of the Senate, if Pryor is the most likely to be flipped.
Do we have any primates from Arkansas with us on TPM? If so, what’s your thinking?